Gifford Plan

Brambleton, VA 20105

$949,995F

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,864 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 82 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,251/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,180
• Tax + insurance: −$1,964
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$893
• Net cashflow: $-4,786/mo
• Annual: $-57,428/yr
• Cap rate: 1.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.40%
• DSCR: 0.23
• 1% rule: 0.36%
• Cash to close: $329,978

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $950k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-57k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $486k (48.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $425k (55.2% below list).
• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($893k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $425k (55.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $67k of equity ($8k loan paydown + $59k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#214 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F, cost of living F.
• Loudoun County Public School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #7 of 131 in VA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Creighton'S Corner Elementary (math 83% / reading 86%, grade A+, #71 of 1,108 statewide, top 8%, 874 students, 17% FRL); Mercer Middle (math 69% / reading 83%, grade A, #42 of 342 statewide, top 13%, 1,379 students, 18% FRL); John Champe High (math 70% / reading 95%, grade A, #36 of 319 statewide, top 12%, 1,598 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: 180 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,317 units permitted in Loudoun County in 2024 (1,818 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Loudoun County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$107k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 1.4% vs local median 2.1% in Brambleton — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.