Gifford Plan · Brambleton, VA 20105

$949,995

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,864 sqft · SingleFamily · 82 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.2/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Gifford home design offers comfort and luxury across three levels and a partially finished basement. The main floor features an open-concept living area, starting with a long foyer leading into a spacious great room with a casual dining space and a well-appointed kitchen. The kitchen consists of a center island with a breakfast bar and a convenient walk-in pantry. Upstairs, the primary bedroom provides a serene retreat with a spacious walk-in closet and spa-like primary bath with dual-sink vanity, a luxurious shower, and a private water closet. Three secondary bedrooms, one with a private bath and two sharing full hall baths, offer ample closet space. The partially finished basement adds valuable living space, perfect for entertainment or relaxation, while also providing ample storage areas. Additional highlights include a spacious two-car garage, an everyday entry, and a powder room for your guest s convenience.

Key facts

• Walk-in pantry
• Private water closet
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• SPACIOUS WALK-IN CLOSET
• SPA-LIKE PRIMARY BATH
• PRIVATE WATER CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $949,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $1,178,493.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $950k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-57k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $486k (48.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $425k (55.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $425k (55.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.4% vs local median 2.1% in Brambleton — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#214 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F, cost of living F.
• Loudoun County Public School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #7 of 131 in VA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 181 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,317 units permitted in Loudoun County in 2024 (1,818 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $67k of equity ($8k loan paydown + $59k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Loudoun County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$107k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($893k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $425,145 (55.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.36% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.40%
• DSCR: 0.23
• GRM: 23.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,178,493
• List price: $949,995
• Delta: -19.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
41478 Bedford Falls Ct	0.70mi	4/3.5	3,274 (+14%)	16mo	$1,368,000	$418	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.98% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-34,820
• Equity at exit: $666,018

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $159,430
• Equity at exit: $1,147,957

Cash invested: $329,978 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20105

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 181
• Price-to-rent: 18.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,251 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,180
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,473 /mo · $17,677/yr
• Insurance: −$491
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$893
• Net cashflow: $-4,786

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,309

Max offer price $486,001

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-3,971	-5% $-4,378	+0% $-4,786	+5% $-5,193	+10% $-5,600
Rent	-10% $-5,122	-5% $-4,954	+0% $-4,786	+5% $-4,618	+10% $-4,450
Rate	-1.0pp $-4,192	-0.5pp $-4,486	base $-4,786	+0.5pp $-5,091	+1.0pp $-5,402

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $294,623
• Closing costs: $35,355
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
41935 Spring Air Dr Brambleton, VA	5.0	4.0	4104	$4,900	$1.19	45d	1	1.13mi
23335 Tradewind Dr Brambleton, VA	3.0	3.5	3182	$3,900	$1.23	5d	1	1.17mi
42171 Castle Ridge Sq Brambleton, VA	3.0	3.5	2846	$3,899	$1.37	25d	1	1.19mi
42230 Castle Ridge Sq Brambleton, VA	3.0	3.5	2846	$3,799	$1.33	45d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $949,995 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $949,995 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $949,995 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $949,995 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $949,995 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $949,995 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $949,995 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $949,995 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $949,995 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $949,995 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $949,995 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $949,995 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $949,995 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $949,995 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-03-31
    listed $949,995 Active 930-char remark

    Show marketing remark (930 chars)

    The Gifford home design offers comfort and luxury across three levels and a partially finished basement. The main floor features an open-concept living area, starting with a long foyer leading into a spacious great room with a casual dining space and a well-appointed kitchen. The kitchen consists of a center island with a breakfast bar and a convenient walk-in pantry. Upstairs, the primary bedroom provides a serene retreat with a spacious walk-in closet and spa-like primary bath with dual-sink vanity, a luxurious shower, and a private water closet. Three secondary bedrooms, one with a private bath and two sharing full hall baths, offer ample closet space. The partially finished basement adds valuable living space, perfect for entertainment or relaxation, while also providing ample storage areas. Additional highlights include a spacious two-car garage, an everyday entry, and a powder room for your guest s convenience.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,017
• − Mortgage interest: −$66,014
• − Property taxes: −$17,677
• − Insurance: −$5,892
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,081
• − Management: −$4,081
• − Depreciation: −$34,283
• Taxable loss: −$81,013
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$19,443
• After-tax cash flow: $-37,985/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Loudoun County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102250
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $121,927
• Composite: 67.43/100
• National rank: #379
• State rank: #7 of 131 in VA

Livability — Brambleton

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #214
• US rank: #6915

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Loudoun County · 393,062 people
• City population: 63,615
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 37,639
• Household income: $219,123
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 49.0

Population outlook (Loudoun County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 503,590 people
• By 2030: 568,852 · +13.0%
• By 2040: 701,480 · +39.3%
• By 2050: 828,841 · +64.6%
• By 2075: 1,105,645 · +119.6%
• By 2100: 1,265,472 · +151.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Asian 31% Black 11% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Other Indo-European 14% Other Asian/Pacific 9% Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Loudoun

• 2024 margin: D (+16.3) · D 56.6% · R 40.4% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.0pp toward D · 2008: 8.2pp · 2024: 16.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.3 2020: D+25.0 2016: D+16.8 2012: D+4.5 2008: D+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.98%
• Current HPI: 344.3873
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $949,995 Zillow