12603 Crest Springs Ln #1416

Alafaya, FL 32828

$224,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,013 sqft · Built 1998 · Condo · Pending · 95 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,954/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,175
• Tax + insurance: −$341
• HOA: −$288
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-259/mo
• Annual: $-3,112/yr
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.96%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $62,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $224k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-259 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (20.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (12.7% below list).
• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $178k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $727 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-822 appreciation (-0.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#60 in FL, #1,076 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Waterford Elementary (math 71% / reading 70%, grade A-, #333 of 2,144 statewide, top 16%, 526 students, 42% FRL); Discovery Middle (math 61% / reading 55%, grade B, #151 of 571 statewide, top 27%, 812 students, 53% FRL); Timber Creek High (math 46% / reading 72%, grade C+, #113 of 667 statewide, top 17%, 3,573 students, 33% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 62% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Orange average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 329 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $224k implies a 460% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.4% in Alafaya — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?