12603 Crest Springs Ln #1416 · Alafaya, FL 32828

$224,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,013 sqft · Condo public records · 95 Days on market

Built 1998 $288/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Come see this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2 bath condo located in the desirable Crest at Waterford Lakes community. This first floor unit is in good condition and features all appliances, including an inside laundry room with washer and dryer. Enjoy relaxing on your private balcony overlooking a peaceful reserve area. The community offers excellent amenities, including a pool, fitness center, clubhouse, and playground. This property is perfect for an investor or a future owner-occupant. Currently tenant-occupied, it provides immediate rental income. Conveniently located near Waterford Lakes Town Center, you will have easy access to shopping, dining, and entertainment. Major highways includin

Key facts

• Ground floor unit
• Split bedroom plan
• Inside laundry room

Tags

• GROUND FLOOR UNIT
• SPLIT BEDROOM PLAN
• INSIDE LAUNDRY ROOM
• ALL APPLIANCES INCLUDED
• SMALL PORCH
• WITHIN A FEW MILES OF UCF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions provided by listing: via 408 to Alafaya, east then left on Lake Underhill, left into The Crest; unit is at the back on the left
• Financial info: Total monthly fees $288; Total annual fees $3,456; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Association: the Crest; Monthly condo/HOA fee $288 (includes pool, fitness center, clubhouse, playground, community mailbox, management, maintenance of grounds and structure, pest control, escrow reserves); Association approval required; Pets allowed: cats and dogs

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Condominium; One story; Northeast facing; Residential property
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of building number 12603
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Storage; Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (1st floor)
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen/family room combo; Split bedroom floor plan; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in kitchen area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $224k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-260 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (20.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.5% in Alafaya — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#60 in FL, #1,076 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D+.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 328 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $727 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-822 appreciation (-0.4% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $224k implies a 460% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $178,152 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.97%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.37% appreciation · 0.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-30,927
• Equity at exit: $60,962

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-38,812
• Equity at exit: $70,098

Cash invested: $62,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32828

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 328
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,954 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,175
• Tax from tax record: −$247 /mo · $2,968/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$288
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-260

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,283

Max offer price $178,152

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-133	-5% $-196	+0% $-260	+5% $-323	+10% $-386
Rent	-10% $-414	-5% $-337	+0% $-260	+5% $-182	+10% $-105
Rate	-1.0pp $-147	-0.5pp $-203	base $-260	+0.5pp $-318	+1.0pp $-377

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,000
• Closing costs: $6,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12602 Crest Springs Ln #1318 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1013	$1,975	$1.95	16d	1	0.04mi
12500 Crest Springs Ln #1014 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1013	$1,700	$1.68	12d	1	0.08mi
12500 Crest Springs Ln #1023 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1013	$1,599	$1.58	23d	1	0.08mi
725 Crest Pines Dr Unit 1 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1013	$1,895	$1.87	9d	1	0.12mi
725 Crest Pines Dr #417 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,950	$1.64	11d	1	0.12mi
725 Crest Pines Dr Orlando, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1100	$1,895	$1.72	25d	2	0.12mi
713 Crest Pines Dr #217 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1013	$1,850	$1.83	23d	1	0.14mi
12932 Mallory Cir Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1173	$2,180	$1.86	17d	49	0.18mi
12932 Mallory Cir Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1096	$2,099	$1.91	3d	39	0.18mi
12846 Lexington Summit St Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1483	$2,350	$1.58	9d	1	0.49mi
12640 Somerset Oaks St Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1483	$2,000	$1.35	16d	1	0.55mi
12640 Somerset Oaks St Orlando, FL	2.0	2.5	1483	$2,000	$1.35	23d	1	0.55mi
12664 Somerset Oaks St Orlando, FL	2.0	2.5	1264	$1,895	$1.50	12d	1	0.55mi
12973 Lexington Summit St Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1476	$2,195	$1.49	23d	1	0.57mi
1301 Waterford Oak Dr Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	948	$2,069	$2.18	3d	14	0.57mi
12649 Somerset Oaks St Orlando, FL	2.0	2.5	1264	$2,000	$1.58	4d	1	0.57mi
12101 Fountainbrook Blvd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	968	$1,996	$2.06	3d	17	0.60mi
12612 Victoria Place Cir Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1149	$2,098	$1.82	4d	12	0.68mi
1215 Sophie Blvd Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,625	$1.35	4d	1	0.82mi
1230 Sophie Blvd Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1087	$1,550	$1.43	4d	1	0.87mi
834 Oberry Hoover Rd Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	1061	$1,750	$1.65	25d	1	0.88mi
986 Tillery Way #106 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.5	1260	$1,850	$1.47	14d	1	0.96mi
1700 Woodbury Rd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	999	$1,712	$1.71	4d	7	0.98mi
12137 Ashton Manor Way Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1051	$1,693	$1.61	4d	8	0.98mi
12000 Bryonia Rd Alafaya, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	979	$2,127	$2.17	3d	14	1.01mi
1421 Sophie Blvd Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1087	$1,795	$1.65	19d	1	1.04mi
1641 Cricket Club Cir Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,228	$1.86	9d	2	1.04mi
12221 E Colonial Dr Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	817	$2,015	$2.47	4d	10	1.28mi
13645 E Colonial Dr Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	857	$2,235	$2.61	4d	10	1.45mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $288 · $3,456/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-13
   price $224,000
3. 2026-03-20
   price $227,000
4. 2026-02-09
   listed $232,000 Active
5. 2023-10-16
   historical $1,650
6. 2023-10-14
   listed $1,650
7. 2023-10-12
   historical $1,650
8. 2023-10-04
   price $1,650
9. 2023-09-11
   listed $1,750
10. 2023-09-03
    historical $1,750
11. 2023-09-02
    listed $1,750
12. 2023-09-02
    historical $1,750
13. 2023-08-06
    listed $1,750
14. 2009-10-15
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,968 · $247/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,968 · $247/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,450
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,547
• − Property taxes: −$2,968
• − Insurance: −$1,120
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,876
• − Management: −$1,876
• − HOA: −$3,456
• − Depreciation: −$6,516
• Taxable loss: −$6,910
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,658
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,456/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Alafaya

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #1076

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute B+ Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alafaya, FL
• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• City population: 131,972
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 69,202
• Household income: $101,767
• Rent vs Own: 36.3% rent · 63.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2213.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 23% Black 9% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.37%
• Current HPI: 284.5182
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.82%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+460.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $224,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $227,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-09 Listed $232,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-16 Rental Removed $1,650 APPFOLIO
• 2023-10-14 Listed for Rent $1,650 APPFOLIO
• 2023-10-12 Rental Removed $1,650 STELLARMLS
• 2023-10-04 Price Changed $1,650 STELLARMLS
• 2023-09-11 Listed for Rent $1,750 STELLARMLS
• 2023-09-03 Rental Removed $1,750 STELLARMLS
• 2023-09-02 Listed for Rent $1,750 STELLARMLS
• 2023-09-02 Rental Removed $1,750 APPFOLIO
• 2023-08-06 Listed for Rent $1,750 APPFOLIO
• 2009-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,968 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.