280 S Main St

Fredonia, AZ 86022

$159,900C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,111 sqft · Built 1949 · SingleFamily · Active · 120 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,676/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $360/mo
• Annual: $4,320/yr
• Cap rate: 8.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.65%
• DSCR: 1.43
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $44,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $360 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $146k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-84 appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#93 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Fredonia-Moccasin Unified District (4195) (rural): math 20% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #354 of 501 in AZ (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.