280 S Main St · Fredonia, AZ 86022

$159,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,111 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 120 Days on market

Built 1949 0.43 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Open desert surroundings and small-town accessibility frame this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with a practical layout and natural light throughout the main living areas. Interior spaces are arranged for everyday use with defined rooms and functional flow. The property offers outdoor space suitable for general activities and future improvements. Located near Fredonia City Park, the Kanab Creek area, and regional access to Grand Canyon North Rim, Coral Pink Sand Dunes State Park, and Pipe Spring National Monument, with local services along Main Street and convenient routes via AZ-389 connecting to nearby communities and recreation areas.

Key facts

• Kanab creek area
• Fredonia city park
• Outdoor space

Tags

• OUTDOOR SPACE
• FREDONIA CITY PARK
• KANAB CREEK AREA
• GRAND CANYON NORTH RIM
• PIPE SPRING NATIONAL MONUMENT
• CONVENIENT ROUTES VIA AZ-389

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $360 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#93 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Fredonia-Moccasin Unified District (4195) (rural): math 20% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #354 of 501 in AZ (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-84 appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,509 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.65%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $17,796
• Equity at exit: $46,008

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $65,305
• Equity at exit: $54,969

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86022

• Home prices YoY: -0.0%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,676 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $708/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $360

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,220

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $451	-5% $405	+0% $360	+5% $315	+10% $270
Rent	-10% $228	-5% $294	+0% $360	+5% $426	+10% $492
Rate	-1.0pp $441	-0.5pp $401	base $360	+0.5pp $319	+1.0pp $276

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $159,900 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,900 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,900 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,900 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $159,900 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $179,900 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 100 DOM
17. 2026-04-23
    price $179,900 637-char remark

    Show marketing remark (637 chars)

    Open desert surroundings and small-town accessibility frame this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with a practical layout and natural light throughout the main living areas. Interior spaces are arranged for everyday use with defined rooms and functional flow. The property offers outdoor space suitable for general activities and future improvements. Located near Fredonia City Park, the Kanab Creek area, and regional access to Grand Canyon North Rim, Coral Pink Sand Dunes State Park, and Pipe Spring National Monument, with local services along Main Street and convenient routes via AZ-389 connecting to nearby communities and recreation areas.

18. 2026-03-25
    price $189,900 637-char remark

    Show marketing remark (637 chars)

    Open desert surroundings and small-town accessibility frame this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with a practical layout and natural light throughout the main living areas. Interior spaces are arranged for everyday use with defined rooms and functional flow. The property offers outdoor space suitable for general activities and future improvements. Located near Fredonia City Park, the Kanab Creek area, and regional access to Grand Canyon North Rim, Coral Pink Sand Dunes State Park, and Pipe Spring National Monument, with local services along Main Street and convenient routes via AZ-389 connecting to nearby communities and recreation areas.

19. 2026-02-19
    listed $199,900 Active 637-char remark

    Show marketing remark (637 chars)

    Open desert surroundings and small-town accessibility frame this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with a practical layout and natural light throughout the main living areas. Interior spaces are arranged for everyday use with defined rooms and functional flow. The property offers outdoor space suitable for general activities and future improvements. Located near Fredonia City Park, the Kanab Creek area, and regional access to Grand Canyon North Rim, Coral Pink Sand Dunes State Park, and Pipe Spring National Monument, with local services along Main Street and convenient routes via AZ-389 connecting to nearby communities and recreation areas.

20. 2021-09-23
    soldstatus $150,000
21. 2005-10-28
    soldstatus $45,000
22. 2003-02-20
    soldstatus $35,000
23. 1996-09-01
    soldstatus $52,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $708 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,055 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: +$347/yr (+$29/mo · 49.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,115
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$708
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,609
• − Management: −$1,609
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $1,780
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$427
• After-tax cash flow: $3,893/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fredonia-Moccasin Unified District (4195)
• NCES district ID: 0403080
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $41,806
• Composite: 22.34/100
• National rank: #13482
• State rank: #354 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Fredonia

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #93
• US rank: #13712

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fredonia, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 1,565

Population outlook (Coconino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 150,645 people
• By 2030: 156,857 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 168,714 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 181,082 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 218,399 · +45.0%
• By 2100: 238,853 · +58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Native American 21% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 15% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Coconino

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.2% · R 39.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.9pp toward D · 2008: 17.0pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+19.4 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.05%
• Current HPI: 175.7855
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+246.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $179,900 ARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $189,900 ARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $199,900 ARMLS
• 2021-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2005-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2003-02-20 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 1996-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $708 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.