425 State Highway 34 SW

Italy, TX 76651

$45,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 2001 · Manufactured · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,381/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax + insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $796/mo
• Annual: $9,546/yr
• Cap rate: 27.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 75.76%
• DSCR: 4.37
• 1% rule: 3.07%
• Cash to close: $12,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $796 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($311 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#224 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Italy ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #544 of 826 in TX (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Stafford El (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 331 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 53% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 27.5% vs local median 2.7% in Italy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.