nhn Elliott Hwy Unit 49.5 Mile Elliott Highway

Fairbanks, AK 99712

$101,000B-

11 bd · None ba · 3,312 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Active · 158 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,207/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$530
• Tax + insurance: −$168
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $1,046/mo
• Annual: $12,551/yr
• Cap rate: 18.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.38%
• DSCR: 2.97
• 1% rule: 2.19%
• Cash to close: $28,280

Investor read

• This is a 11-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $101k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $101k).
• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $89k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $698 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#95 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Fairbanks North Star Borough School District (urban): math 33% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #10 of 21 in AK (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 149 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Fairbanks North Star Borough in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fairbanks North Star County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $49k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 18.7% vs local median 4.9% in Fairbanks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Kitchen appliances — Scattered and in need of cleaning
• Major: Roof — Rusty and in poor condition
• Major: Exterior siding — Weathered and in poor condition
• Major: Flooring — Dirty and worn tiles
• Major: Interior walls/paint — Dirty and stained walls
• Major: Windows — Dirty and stained windows