nhn Elliott Hwy Unit 49.5 Mile Elliott Highway · Fairbanks, AK 99712

$101,000

11 bd · None ba · 3,312 sqft · SingleFamily · 158 Days on market

Built 1975 Poor condition 16 ac lot ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rustic homestead on 16 acres of nicely wooded land with mostly spruce and birch on a slight slope . NO PROPERTY TAXS !!! Located approximately 60 miles north of Fairbanks, OFF THE GRID AND NO RUNNING WATER - U HAUL . The huge log home with additions has SEVERAL bedrooms. ( big & small ) The cute two story cabin's bedroom is the whole upstairs. There are several other buildings such as the Barn, Garage, Kennel, Greenhouse, Sauna, Laundry, cabins and Sheds. The property is adjacent to the Northern Tours Gift Shop and Aurora Viewing. Theres a lot here to start with for the right ambitious people looking to live the self sufficient pioneer lifestyle that are willing to work hard . THE BIG HOUSE NEEDS TO BE LEVELED AND FIXED UP , ALL THE OTHER BUILDING NEED A LOT OF WORK TOO !!!! Property being sold "AS IS" seller will do no repairs !!!

Key facts

• Garage
• Barn
• Two story cabin

Tags

• 16 ACRES
• WOODED LAND
• LOG HOME
• TWO STORY CABIN
• BARN
• GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 11-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $101k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $101k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.7% vs local median 4.9% in Fairbanks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#95 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Fairbanks North Star Borough School District (urban): math 33% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #10 of 21 in AK (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 149 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Fairbanks North Star Borough in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $698 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fairbanks North Star County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $49k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $88,880 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.38%
• DSCR: 2.97
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $50,281
• Equity at exit: $15,059

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.59×
• Total profit: $129,696
• Equity at exit: $8,733

Cash invested: $28,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99712

• Home prices YoY: -24.2%
• Active inventory: 149
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,207 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$530
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$126 /mo · $1,515/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $1,046

Break-even live

Break-even rent $884

Max offer price $101,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,116	-5% $1,081	+0% $1,046	+5% $1,011	+10% $976
Rent	-10% $872	-5% $959	+0% $1,046	+5% $1,133	+10% $1,220
Rate	-1.0pp $1,097	-0.5pp $1,072	base $1,046	+0.5pp $1,020	+1.0pp $993

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,250
• Closing costs: $3,030
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $101,000 Active 158 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $101,000 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $101,000 Active 155 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $101,000 Active 154 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $101,000 Active 153 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $101,000 Active 152 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $101,000 Active 150 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $101,000 Active 149 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $95,000 Active 147 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $150,000 Active 146 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $150,000 Active 145 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $150,000 Active 141 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 140 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 139 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 138 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 137 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $150,000 Active 136 DOM
18. 2026-01-15
    listed $150,000 Active 863-char remark

    Show marketing remark (863 chars)

    Rustic homestead on 16 acres of nicely wooded land with mostly spruce and birch on a slight slope . NO PROPERTY TAXS !!! Located approximately 60 miles north of Fairbanks, OFF THE GRID AND NO RUNNING WATER - U HAUL . The huge log home with additions has SEVERAL bedrooms. ( big & small ) The cute two story cabin's bedroom is the whole upstairs. There are several other buildings such as the Barn, Garage, Kennel, Greenhouse, Sauna, Laundry, cabins and Sheds. The property is adjacent to the Northern Tours Gift Shop and Aurora Viewing. Theres a lot here to start with for the right ambitious people looking to live the self sufficient pioneer lifestyle that are willing to work hard . THE BIG HOUSE NEEDS TO BE LEVELED AND FIXED UP , ALL THE OTHER BUILDING NEED A LOT OF WORK TOO !!!! Property being sold "AS IS" seller will do no repairs !!!

19. 2025-07-01
    price $145,000
20. 2023-11-21
    listed $150,000 Active
21. 2023-08-04
    price $150,000
22. 2023-05-15
    price $155,000
23. 2021-10-18
    listed $175,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,490
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,658
• − Property taxes: −$1,515
• − Insurance: −$505
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,119
• − Management: −$2,119
• − Depreciation: −$2,938
• Taxable income: $11,635
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,793
• After-tax cash flow: $9,758/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance to bring it up to a livable condition. Significant work is needed to address the poor condition of the roof, exterior, interior, and HVAC systems.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen appliances — Scattered and in need of cleaning
• Major Roof — Rusty and in poor condition
• Major Exterior siding — Weathered and in poor condition
• Major Flooring — Dirty and worn tiles
• Major Interior walls/paint — Dirty and stained walls
• Major Windows — Dirty and stained windows
• Major Foundation/structure — Structural issues visible
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No photos of HVAC

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Clean and organized kitchen — A clean kitchen enhances the home's appeal
• Resale Clean and organized exterior — A clean exterior enhances the home's appeal
• Resale Clean and organized windows — Clean windows enhance the home's appeal
• Rental Clean and organized HVAC — A clean HVAC system improves tenant satisfaction

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen appliances · Scattered and in need of cleaning	Major	$15,000–50,000
Roof · Rusty and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior siding · Weathered and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Dirty and worn tiles	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls/paint · Dirty and stained walls	Major	$15,000–50,000
Windows · Dirty and stained windows	Major	$15,000–50,000
Foundation/structure · Structural issues visible	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No photos of HVAC	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 8 items		$120,000–400,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Clean and organized kitchen — A clean kitchen enhances the home's appeal ↑
• Resale Clean and organized exterior — A clean exterior enhances the home's appeal ↑
• Resale Clean and organized windows — Clean windows enhance the home's appeal ↑
• Rental Clean and organized HVAC — A clean HVAC system improves tenant satisfaction ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairbanks North Star Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200600
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,697
• Composite: 35.5/100
• National rank: #4915
• State rank: #10 of 21 in AK

Livability — Fairbanks

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #95
• US rank: #21394

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 47,612
• Population (ZIP): 12,070

Population outlook (Fairbanks North Star County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,607 people
• By 2030: 102,796 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 104,748 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 107,598 · +5.9%
• By 2075: 118,829 · +16.9%
• By 2100: 127,151 · +25.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Native American 9% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fairbanks North Star

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.35%
• Current HPI: 148.2472
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-15 Listed $150,000 GFBR
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $145,000 GFBR
• 2023-11-21 Listed $150,000 GFBR
• 2023-08-04 Price Changed $150,000 GFBR
• 2023-05-15 Price Changed $155,000 GFBR
• 2021-10-18 Listed $175,000 GFBR