5 bd · 4.0 ba ·
3,494 sqft ·
Built 1840
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 48 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$7,582/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,202
Tax + insurance
−$658
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,592
Net cashflow
$3,130/mo
Annual
$37,557/yr
Cap rate
15.24%
Cash-on-cash
31.94%
DSCR
2.42
1% rule
1.81%
Cash to close
$117,572
Investor read
This is a 3 × 5-bed/4.0-bath units multifamily listed at $420k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($38k/yr) — positive. Per door: $1k/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $420k).
It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($407k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $407k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 69/100 on livability (#475 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, amenities B+, cost of living B+; Watch: housing C-, crime D+, employment F.
Port Jervis City School District (rural): math 43% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #451 of 590 in NY (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Anna S Kuhl Elementary School (math 35% / reading 49%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 755 students, 63% FRL); Port Jervis Middle School (math 22% / reading 35%, grade F, #569 of 729 statewide, top 78%, 379 students, 59% FRL); Port Jervis Senior High School (math 87% / reading 95%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 750 students, 55% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1840 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
3 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $300k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $118k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 15.2% vs local median 4.6% in Port Jervis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $7,582/mo this rent would consume 134% of the median local household income ($68k/yr) (locally 792% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1840 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-SMX2VE38TTCPY1
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29