16 Bay Ln

Willsboro, NY 12996

$94,900C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 384 sqft · Built 1988 · Manufactured · Active · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $912/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax + insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$191
• Net cashflow: $131/mo
• Annual: $1,570/yr
• Cap rate: 7.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.91%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $26,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $131 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $91k (3.9% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $91k (3.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($656 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (6.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#999 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Willsboro Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #562 of 755 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.