16 Bay Ln · Willsboro, NY 12996

$94,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 384 sqft · Manufactured public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1988 0.67 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• Appreciation +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Move right in to this quaint ranch style home. The wood sided Manufactured home with addition is clean, neat, taken care of and ready for new owners. This is great as an income producing property as an affordable home!

Key facts

• 0.67 acre lot
• Built 1988
• Listed 30 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.67 acres

Exterior

• Parking: Drive-through access; Driveway; Gravel parking; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electric with circuit breakers; Cable available and connected; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured house; One level
• Construction: Wood siding; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Deck; Cleared lot; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Refrigerator; Range hood
• Bedrooms: 4 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Propane stove; Wall furnace; Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Laminate counters; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $131 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $91k (3.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $91k (3.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#999 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Willsboro Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #562 of 755 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($656 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (6.9% local appreciation)).
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $91,169 (3.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.91%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $41,013
• Equity at exit: $65,307

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.25×
• Total profit: $112,968
• Equity at exit: $123,644

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12996

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $912 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $627/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$191
• Net cashflow: $131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $746

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,900 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,900 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,900 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,900 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $94,900 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,900 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,900 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,900 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,900 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    listed $99,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $627 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,115 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$488/yr (+$41/mo · 77.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$627
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$875
• − Management: −$875
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $12
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3
• After-tax cash flow: $1,567/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willsboro Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3631500
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $49,874
• Composite: 40.85/100
• National rank: #7540
• State rank: #562 of 755 in NY

Livability — Willsboro

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #999
• US rank: #19056

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willsboro, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,937

Population outlook (Essex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,758 people
• By 2030: 35,697 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 32,697 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 29,248 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 22,641 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 16,602 · -54.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Scottish 9% Lithuanian 6% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Essex

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.2% · R 49.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 13.3pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+5.0 2016: R+3.4 2012: D+15.0 2008: D+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.93%
• Current HPI: 317.7691
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $99,900 ACVMLS

Property tax history

+30.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $627 · -4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.