3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
861 sqft ·
Built 1920
· Townhouse
· Active
· 20 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$954/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$335
Tax + insurance
−$56
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$200
Net cashflow
$362/mo
Annual
$4,350/yr
Cap rate
13.10%
Cash-on-cash
24.31%
DSCR
2.08
1% rule
1.49%
Cash to close
$17,892
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $64k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $362 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($954 rent vs $64k).
It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $63k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $442 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $826 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 91/100 on livability (#14 in PA, #64 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety D+.
Shamokin Area SD (town): math 19% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #450 of 539 in PA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 81 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Northumberland County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $55k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (-1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29