2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,282 sqft ·
Built 1952
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 2 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,294/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$747
Tax + insurance
−$229
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$272
Net cashflow
$46/mo
Annual
$549/yr
Cap rate
6.68%
Cash-on-cash
1.38%
DSCR
1.06
1% rule
0.91%
Cash to close
$39,900
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $142k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $46 ($549/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (9.2% below list).
Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $129k (9.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $985 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#239 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D-, amenities F.
Ferguson-Florissant R-II (suburban): math 7% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #311 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Griffith Elementary (math 3% / reading 9%, grade F, #1,069 of 1,115 statewide, top 96%, 282 students, 99% FRL); Ferguson Middle (math 3% / reading 14%, grade F, #376 of 391 statewide, top 96%, 615 students, 100% FRL); Mccluer High (math 0% / reading 17%, grade F, #511 of 521 statewide, top 98%, 1,181 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 70% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 165 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 10.3% in Dellwood — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-SNEVRADP0DG80P
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29