1254 Sophie Blvd

Alafaya, FL 32828

$229,900D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 995 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Pending · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,802/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$324
• HOA: −$43
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-149/mo
• Annual: $-1,792/yr
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.78%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $64,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-149 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (11.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (21.6% below list).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $180k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $745 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-844 appreciation (-0.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#60 in FL, #1,076 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Camelot Elementary (math 54% / reading 58%, grade C+, #832 of 2,144 statewide, top 40%, 609 students, 51% FRL); Legacy Middle (math 38% / reading 45%, grade F, #348 of 571 statewide, top 62%, 683 students, 56% FRL); East River High (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 2,050 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 329 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.5% in Alafaya — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.