409 Willow Ln

Princeton, KY 42445

$80,000C

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 804 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $842/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax + insurance: −$63
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$177
• Net cashflow: $183/mo
• Annual: $2,195/yr
• Cap rate: 9.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.80%
• DSCR: 1.44
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $22,400

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $183 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($842 rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#88 in KY, #3,490 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, commute F.
• Caldwell County (rural): math 28% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #78 of 165 in KY (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Caldwell County Primary School (523 students, 64% FRL); Caldwell County Middle School (math 25% / reading 42%, grade F, #105 of 217 statewide, top 51%, 421 students, 55% FRL).
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP.
• Caldwell County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $80k implies a 967% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 5.8% in Princeton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.