409 Willow Ln · Princeton, KY 42445

$80,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 804 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

0.27 ac lot Est $79k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable 1 bed, 1 bath starter home with several major updates completed since 2022, including new carpet, roof, HVAC, water heater, and refrigerator. The property also features two shed-style garages offering plenty of storage space. Selling AS-IS and will likely require conventional financing or a cash buyer.

Key facts

• New carpet
• New hvac
• New water heater

Tags

• NEW CARPET
• NEW ROOF
• NEW HVAC
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW REFRIGERATOR
• TWO SHED-STYLE GARAGES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the McLin Hghts subdivision; Directions provided to the property

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Level, corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Cooktop
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Refrigerator; Cooktop; Central air conditioning; Forced air heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $183 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($842 rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 5.8% in Princeton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#88 in KY, #3,490 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, commute F.
• Caldwell County (rural): math 28% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #78 of 165 in KY (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Caldwell County Primary School (523 students, 64% FRL); Caldwell County Middle School (math 25% / reading 42%, grade F, #105 of 217 statewide, top 51%, 421 students, 55% FRL).
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caldwell County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $80k implies a 967% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,800 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.80%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $78,792
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
200 Allen St	0.08mi	2/1.0 (+1)	864 (+8%)	13mo	$85,000	$98	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-1,343
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $13,709
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42445

• Home prices YoY: -7.9%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $842 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $356/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$177
• Net cashflow: $183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $611

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $80,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $80,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $80,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-26
    listed $80,000 Active
17. 2000-04-01
    soldstatus $7,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $356 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $688 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: +$332/yr (+$28/mo · 93.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,109
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$356
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$809
• − Management: −$809
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $926
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$222
• After-tax cash flow: $1,973/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caldwell County
• NCES district ID: 2100840
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $40,080
• Composite: 28.12/100
• National rank: #6819
• State rank: #78 of 165 in KY

Livability — Princeton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #88
• US rank: #3490

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Princeton, KY
• Population (ZIP): 10,371

Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,100 people
• By 2030: 11,739 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 11,088 · -8.4%
• By 2050: 10,543 · -12.9%
• By 2075: 9,406 · -22.3%
• By 2100: 8,084 · -33.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.3% · R 78.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.6pp toward R · 2008: -26.7pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+54.0 2016: R+54.4 2012: R+35.0 2008: R+26.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -20.07%
• Current HPI: 232.7067
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+966.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $80,000 WKRMLS
• 2000-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $7,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $356 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.