2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
744 sqft ·
Built 1925
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 94 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,298/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$708
Tax + insurance
−$143
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$273
Net cashflow
$175/mo
Annual
$2,099/yr
Cap rate
7.85%
Cash-on-cash
5.55%
DSCR
1.25
1% rule
0.96%
Cash to close
$37,800
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $175 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (3.8% below list).
It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $123k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#163 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities C-, employment D, crime F.
Roanoke City Public School District (urban): math 40% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #102 of 131 in VA (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Lincoln Terrace Elementary (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,108 statewide, top 94%, 297 students, 103% FRL); Breckinridge Middle (math 23% / reading 52%, grade F, #315 of 342 statewide, top 93%, 624 students, 99% FRL); William Fleming High (math 66% / reading 68%, grade B, #185 of 319 statewide, top 61%, 1,911 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 67% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.5%/yr); 194 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 113 units permitted in Roanoke city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Roanoke County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
4 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $44k; list at $135k implies a 207% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.2% in Roanoke — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29