6616 Creek Edge Cir

Burleson, TX 76036

$364,990D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,651 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 85 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,556/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax + insurance: −$608
• HOA: −$64
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$537
• Net cashflow: $-567/mo
• Annual: $-6,809/yr
• Cap rate: 4.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.66%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $102,197

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $365k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-567 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (22.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (30.0% below list).
• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($343k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $256k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#53 in TX, #2,133 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Joshua ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #139 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 1018 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.5% in Burleson — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.