6616 Creek Edge Cir · Burleson, TX 76036

$364,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,651 sqft · SingleFamily · 85 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,227 sqft lot $138/sqft · 17% below area Est $441k · 17% under $64/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Skip your commute and work from home in the first or second-story study. The upstairs game room makes a great media or play space. Downstairs, a large walk-in closet and bath complement the private primary suite.

Key facts

• Amenity center
• Walk-in closet
• Resort-style pool

Tags

• ENERGY EFFICIENT HOME
• GAME ROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• RESORT-STYLE POOL
• AMENITY CENTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $365k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-567 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (22.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (30.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $256k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.5% in Burleson — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#53 in TX, #2,133 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Joshua ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #139 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 1018 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($343k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $255,567 (30.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.66%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $440,925
• List price: $364,990
• Delta: -17.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9609 Rattlesnake Trl	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,651 (0%)	1mo	$374,990	$141	99
11360 County Road 1015	0.31mi	4/2.0	2,793 (+5%)	2mo	$618,000	$221	73
3505 Overview Dr	0.69mi	4/3.0	2,560 (-3%)	10mo	$550,000	$215	51
3629 County Road 920	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,426 (-8%)	4mo	$199,500	$82	46
10104 Lavinder Ln	0.62mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,732 (+3%)	16mo	$449,100	$164	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-97,042
• Equity at exit: $54,421

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-138,152
• Equity at exit: $31,558

Cash invested: $102,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76036

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 1018
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,556 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$456 /mo · $5,475/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$64
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$537
• Net cashflow: $-567

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,274

Max offer price $282,889

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,248
• Closing costs: $10,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $64 · $768/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $364,990 Pending 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $364,990 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $364,990 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $364,990 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   price $364,990 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $367,490 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $367,490 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-04-29
   price $377,490 212-char remark

   Show marketing remark (212 chars)

   Skip your commute and work from home in the first or second-story study. The upstairs game room makes a great media or play space. Downstairs, a large walk-in closet and bath complement the private primary suite.

9. 2026-04-28
   price $377,490 833-char remark

   Show marketing remark (833 chars)

   BRAND NEW energy - efficient home Apr 2026! Upstairs game room makes a great play space. Downstairs, a large walk-in closet creates generous Primary suite. White cabinets with veined white quartz countertops, tan tone EVP flooring with dark beige tweed carpet. Escape the bustle of the city without being too far from the action. Beat the summer heat at the neighborhood amenity center complete with a resort-style pool. Zoned in the sought-after Crowley ISD, Tesoro at Chisholm Trail Ranch offers six floor plans to fit your family’s lifestyle. We also build each home with energy-efficient features that cut down on utility bills so you can afford to do more living.* Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

10. 2026-04-25
    status Active 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Skip your commute and work from home in the first or second-story study. The upstairs game room makes a great media or play space. Downstairs, a large walk-in closet and bath complement the private primary suite.

11. 2026-04-25
    historical 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Skip your commute and work from home in the first or second-story study. The upstairs game room makes a great media or play space. Downstairs, a large walk-in closet and bath complement the private primary suite.

12. 2026-04-22
    price $379,990 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Skip your commute and work from home in the first or second-story study. The upstairs game room makes a great media or play space. Downstairs, a large walk-in closet and bath complement the private primary suite.

13. 2026-04-18
    price $379,990 833-char remark

    Show marketing remark (833 chars)

    BRAND NEW energy - efficient home Apr 2026! Upstairs game room makes a great play space. Downstairs, a large walk-in closet creates generous Primary suite. White cabinets with veined white quartz countertops, tan tone EVP flooring with dark beige tweed carpet. Escape the bustle of the city without being too far from the action. Beat the summer heat at the neighborhood amenity center complete with a resort-style pool. Zoned in the sought-after Crowley ISD, Tesoro at Chisholm Trail Ranch offers six floor plans to fit your family’s lifestyle. We also build each home with energy-efficient features that cut down on utility bills so you can afford to do more living.* Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

14. 2026-04-10
    status Active 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Skip your commute and work from home in the first or second-story study. The upstairs game room makes a great media or play space. Downstairs, a large walk-in closet and bath complement the private primary suite.

15. 2026-04-10
    price $384,990 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Skip your commute and work from home in the first or second-story study. The upstairs game room makes a great media or play space. Downstairs, a large walk-in closet and bath complement the private primary suite.

16. 2026-03-11
    listed $384,990 Active 833-char remark

    Show marketing remark (833 chars)

    BRAND NEW energy - efficient home Apr 2026! Upstairs game room makes a great play space. Downstairs, a large walk-in closet creates generous Primary suite. White cabinets with veined white quartz countertops, tan tone EVP flooring with dark beige tweed carpet. Escape the bustle of the city without being too far from the action. Beat the summer heat at the neighborhood amenity center complete with a resort-style pool. Zoned in the sought-after Crowley ISD, Tesoro at Chisholm Trail Ranch offers six floor plans to fit your family’s lifestyle. We also build each home with energy-efficient features that cut down on utility bills so you can afford to do more living.* Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

17. 2025-10-24
    historical 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Skip your commute and work from home in the first or second-story study. The upstairs game room makes a great media or play space. Downstairs, a large walk-in closet and bath complement the private primary suite.

18. 2025-10-22
    listed $475,723 Active 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Skip your commute and work from home in the first or second-story study. The upstairs game room makes a great media or play space. Downstairs, a large walk-in closet and bath complement the private primary suite.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,668
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,445
• − Property taxes: −$5,475
• − Insurance: −$1,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,453
• − Management: −$2,453
• − HOA: −$768
• − Depreciation: −$10,618
• Taxable loss: −$13,370
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,209
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,600/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from landscaping and interior paint to further enhance its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Interior paint — Fresh paint can make the home more appealing
• Both Appliances — Upgrading appliances can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Interior paint — Fresh paint can make the home more appealing ↑
• Both Appliances — Upgrading appliances can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Joshua ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824930
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,696
• Composite: 44.65/100
• National rank: #2769
• State rank: #139 of 826 in TX

Livability — Burleson

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #2133

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 81,549
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,044
• Household income: $97,973
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 584.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 20% Two or more races 14% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.45%
• Current HPI: 238.6365
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $377,490 Zillow
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $377,490 NTREIS
• 2026-04-25 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-25 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $379,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $379,990 NTREIS
• 2026-04-10 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $384,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-11 Listed $384,990 NTREIS
• 2025-10-24 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-22 Listed $475,723 Zillow