12038 Hail Harbor Dr

Baytown, TX 77523

$386,340F

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,844 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,678/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,026
• Tax + insurance: −$644
• HOA: −$75
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $-629/mo
• Annual: $-7,549/yr
• Cap rate: 4.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.98%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $108,175

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath land listed at $386k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-629 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (23.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (30.7% below list).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($375k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $268k (30.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 776 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.