12038 Hail Harbor Dr · Baytown, TX 77523

$386,340

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,844 sqft · Land · 33 Days on market

Built 2026 $136/sqft · 6% above area Est $363k · 6% over $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• ARV discount +4.7/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand new, energy-efficient home available by May 2026! Host a game night in the Reynold's sizeable upstairs game room. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and aloe backsplash, brown tone EVP flooring with multi-tone carpet. Heights of Barbers Hill offers access to A-rated schools and major employment centers in Baytown, Mont Belvieu, and the ship channel. Unwind at the planned community pool or exploring the miles of trails. Premier dining, shopping, and recreation are all just minutes from your front door. We also build each home with innovative, energy-efficient features that cut down on utility bills so you can afford to do more living.* Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Upstairs game room
• Miles of trails

Tags

• UPSTAIRS GAME ROOM
• COMMUNITY POOL
• MILES OF TRAILS
• ENERGY EFFICIENT FEATURES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath land listed at $386k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-629 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (23.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (30.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (30.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 776 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($375k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $267,828 (30.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.98%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $363,414
• List price: $386,340
• Delta: 6.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-101,446
• Equity at exit: $57,605

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-134,874
• Equity at exit: $33,404

Cash invested: $108,175 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 776
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,678 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,026
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$483 /mo · $5,795/yr
• Insurance: −$161
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $-629

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,475

Max offer price $295,313

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,585
• Closing costs: $11,590
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 817-char remark

   Show marketing remark (817 chars)

   Brand new, energy-efficient home available by May 2026! Host a game night in the Reynold's sizeable upstairs game room. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and aloe backsplash, brown tone EVP flooring with multi-tone carpet. Heights of Barbers Hill offers access to A-rated schools and major employment centers in Baytown, Mont Belvieu, and the ship channel. Unwind at the planned community pool or exploring the miles of trails. Premier dining, shopping, and recreation are all just minutes from your front door. We also build each home with innovative, energy-efficient features that cut down on utility bills so you can afford to do more living.* Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

2. 2026-05-01
   price $386,340 817-char remark

   Show marketing remark (817 chars)

   Brand new, energy-efficient home available by May 2026! Host a game night in the Reynold's sizeable upstairs game room. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and aloe backsplash, brown tone EVP flooring with multi-tone carpet. Heights of Barbers Hill offers access to A-rated schools and major employment centers in Baytown, Mont Belvieu, and the ship channel. Unwind at the planned community pool or exploring the miles of trails. Premier dining, shopping, and recreation are all just minutes from your front door. We also build each home with innovative, energy-efficient features that cut down on utility bills so you can afford to do more living.* Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

3. 2026-04-10
   price $383,340 817-char remark

   Show marketing remark (817 chars)

   Brand new, energy-efficient home available by May 2026! Host a game night in the Reynold's sizeable upstairs game room. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and aloe backsplash, brown tone EVP flooring with multi-tone carpet. Heights of Barbers Hill offers access to A-rated schools and major employment centers in Baytown, Mont Belvieu, and the ship channel. Unwind at the planned community pool or exploring the miles of trails. Premier dining, shopping, and recreation are all just minutes from your front door. We also build each home with innovative, energy-efficient features that cut down on utility bills so you can afford to do more living.* Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

4. 2026-04-09
   listed $398,340 Active 817-char remark

   Show marketing remark (817 chars)

   Brand new, energy-efficient home available by May 2026! Host a game night in the Reynold's sizeable upstairs game room. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and aloe backsplash, brown tone EVP flooring with multi-tone carpet. Heights of Barbers Hill offers access to A-rated schools and major employment centers in Baytown, Mont Belvieu, and the ship channel. Unwind at the planned community pool or exploring the miles of trails. Premier dining, shopping, and recreation are all just minutes from your front door. We also build each home with innovative, energy-efficient features that cut down on utility bills so you can afford to do more living.* Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,139
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,641
• − Property taxes: −$5,795
• − Insurance: −$1,932
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,571
• − Management: −$2,571
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$11,239
• Taxable loss: −$14,510
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,482
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,066/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $386,340 HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $383,340 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $398,340 HARMLS