3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,072 sqft ·
Built 1937
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 61 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,588/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$655
Tax + insurance
−$234
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$334
Net cashflow
$366/mo
Annual
$4,391/yr
Cap rate
10.45%
Cash-on-cash
14.84%
DSCR
1.66
1% rule
1.27%
Cash to close
$34,972
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $366 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $117k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#397 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Celina City (town): math 64% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #299 of 656 in OH (top 46%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1937 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 92 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Mercer County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 4.8% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1937 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-SPWR48CB7TY6DH
· Data 2 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29