41498 Cape Horn Dr

Concrete, WA 98237

$314,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,234 sqft · Built 1967 · SingleFamily · Pending · 263 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,896/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,647
• Tax + insurance: −$739
• HOA: −$87
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $-974/mo
• Annual: $-11,692/yr
• Cap rate: 4.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.48%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $87,920

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $314k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-974 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $142k (54.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (39.6% below list).
• It's been on market 263 days — a 12% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $142k (54.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#157 in WA, #3,709 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, amenities F.
• Concrete School District (rural): math 24% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #255 of 291 in WA (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Concrete Elementary (301 students, 41% FRL); Concrete High School (193 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 60% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 561 units permitted in Skagit County in 2024 (270 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Skagit County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $161k (34%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $314k implies a 707% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.1% in Concrete — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 263 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?