1434 Lake Dr

Casselberry, FL 32707

$230,000D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Pending · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,900/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$389
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-95/mo
• Annual: $-1,137/yr
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.77%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $64,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-95 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (17.4% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $190k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#314 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Seminole (suburban): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #13 of 73 in FL (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 189 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,979 units permitted in Seminole County in 2024 (1,191 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Seminole County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $230k implies a 342% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.1% in Casselberry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.