1434 Lake Dr · Casselberry, FL 32707

$230,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1971 8,801 sqft lot Est $291k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3BR/2BA Block home with updated kitchen.

Key facts

• 8,801 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1971

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoned R-8; Property type: Residential — Single Family Residence; Lot has paved road access
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; One-story home; Faces north
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.2-acre lot
• Exterior features: Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Solid wood cabinets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-543/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (14.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.1% in Casselberry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#314 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Seminole (suburban): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #13 of 73 in FL (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 189 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,979 units permitted in Seminole County in 2024 (1,191 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Seminole County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $230k implies a 342% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,231 (14.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.84%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $290,520
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1434 Lake Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (0%)	0mo	$230,000	$213	95
1346 Quintuplet Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,242 (+15%)	2mo	$360,000	$290	67
1401 Tyrone Ct	0.25mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,077 (-0%)	18mo	$290,000	$269	64
1210 Quintuplet Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,170 (+8%)	10mo	$310,000	$265	63
1285 Park Dr	0.15mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,200 (+11%)	20mo	$334,000	$278	51
391 Panama Cir	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+4%)	7mo	$325,000	$290	49
920 N Triplet Lake Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,163 (+8%)	4mo	$250,000	$215	48
762 S Edgemon Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,008 (-7%)	13mo	$315,000	$313	46
620 Fruitwood Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,204 (+12%)	10mo	$340,000	$282	39
950 N Triplet Lake Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,156 (+7%)	20mo	$287,500	$249	39
651 Bayou Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,151 (+7%)	19mo	$107,100	$93	35
890 N Triplet Lake Dr	0.70mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,164 (+8%)	23mo	$279,999	$241	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-41,898
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-47,233
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32707

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,962 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$293 /mo · $3,522/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $-45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,020

Max offer price $222,009

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $85	-5% $20	+0% $-45	+5% $-110	+10% $-175
Rent	-10% $-200	-5% $-123	+0% $-45	+5% $32	+10% $110
Rate	-1.0pp $71	-0.5pp $13	base $-45	+0.5pp $-105	+1.0pp $-165

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1131 Castle Wood Ter Casselberry, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$1,364	$1.36	6d	1	0.62mi
661 Murphy Rd Winter Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,200	$1.67	25d	1	0.63mi
700 Crestview Dr Casselberry, FL	2.0	1.5	720	$1,550	$2.15	25d	1	0.82mi
421 S Hawthorn Cir Winter Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1052	$2,070	$1.97	6d	1	1.05mi
617 E Helm Way Casselberry, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,995	$2.00	6d	1	1.12mi
291 Ivey Rd Casselberry, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,190	$1.99	4d	1	1.18mi
512 El Dorado Way Casselberry, FL	3.0	1.0	1094	$1,895	$1.73	6d	1	1.29mi
337 Riunite Cir Winter Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,480	$1.65	12d	1	1.35mi
305 Cello Cir Winter Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1308	$2,225	$1.70	13d	1	1.35mi
118 Sundance Ct Winter Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1161	$2,200	$1.89	13d	1	1.37mi
404 Lancers Dr Winter Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,400	$1.71	12d	1	1.40mi
404 Lancers Dr Winter Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,400	$1.71	16d	1	1.40mi
213 S Moss Rd Winter Springs, FL	2.0	1.5	930	$1,495	$1.61	25d	1	1.42mi
213 S Moss Rd Unit 213 Winter Springs, FL	2.0	1.5	930	$1,495	$1.61	23d	1	1.42mi
226 Panorama Dr Winter Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,750	$1.59	6d	1	1.44mi
109 N Alderwood St Winter Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,155	$1.48	16d	1	1.44mi
1445 Bird Rd Winter Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,500	$1.67	25d	1	1.45mi
660 Jasmine Rd Casselberry, FL	2.0	1.0	953	$1,725	$1.81	6d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   listed $230,000 Active
3. 1995-04-11
   soldstatus $52,000
4. 1989-05-01
   soldstatus $51,000
5. 1988-01-01
   soldstatus $51,000
6. 1985-12-01
   soldstatus $54,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,522 · $293/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,522 · $293/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,548
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$3,522
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,884
• − Management: −$1,884
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$4,466
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,072
• After-tax cash flow: $529/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seminole
• NCES district ID: 1201710
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $58,478
• Composite: 51.05/100
• National rank: #1769
• State rank: #13 of 73 in FL

Livability — Casselberry

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #314
• US rank: #5320

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Casselberry, FL
• County: Seminole County · 436,154 people
• City population: 45,584
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 39,493
• Household income: $69,113
• Rent vs Own: 34.2% rent · 65.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1482.0

Population outlook (Seminole County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 515,494 people
• By 2030: 545,713 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 598,068 · +16.0%
• By 2050: 640,663 · +24.3%
• By 2075: 724,461 · +40.5%
• By 2100: 755,530 · +46.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 18% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Seminole

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.6% · R 51.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.8pp no change · 2008: -2.8pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.8 2016: R+1.6 2012: R+6.5 2008: R+2.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -251.90%
• Current HPI: 342.1006
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+322.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Listed $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 1989-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records
• 1988-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records
• 1985-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $54,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,522 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.