50 Cayuga St

Oakley, CA 94561

$96,500B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 894 sqft · Built 1966 · Manufactured · Active · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,370/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$506
• Tax + insurance: −$161
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $1,206/mo
• Annual: $14,469/yr
• Cap rate: 21.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.55%
• DSCR: 3.38
• 1% rule: 2.46%
• Cash to close: $27,020

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $96k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $96k).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $667 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#608 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Antioch Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #200 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Orchard Park (716 students, 67% FRL); Deer Valley High (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #472 of 1,170 statewide, top 42%, 1,851 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 243 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 21.3% vs local median 3.3% in Oakley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.