50 Cayuga St · Oakley, CA 94561

$96,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 894 sqft · Manufactured · 13 Days on market

Built 1966 Est $168k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

So cute! This 2 bed, 1 bath mobile home in the desired Eagle City 55+ mobile home park is a must see. It's move in ready and features updated kitchen & bathroom, double wide living room, laundry & sun room with solar exhaust fan, laminate flooring, window coverings, freshly painted inside, and exterior security lights. Refrigerator, washer & dryer are included, and space rent includes water, garbage, pool & clubhouse use. You'll be conveniently located near to shopping, restaurants, freeway access, public transportation, the Delta waterways, walking/biking trails, and so much more. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Indoor laundry area
• Solar exhaust fan
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• DOUBLE-WIDE LIVING ROOM
• SOLAR EXHAUST FAN
• INDOOR LAUNDRY AREA
• LOW-STEP SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: In-ground pool (community or property pool listed); Living area approx. 894 square feet
• HOA & community: Park name: EAGLE CITY; Senior community; Community clubhouse; Community greenbelt; Community pool; Community game room; Pets allowed — contact park for details

Exterior

• Parking: Parking spaces available
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220 volts in kitchen
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Double wide; Kit Stateliner model
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal skirting
• Exterior features: Back yard; Low-maintenance landscaping; Porch; Fenced

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range/cooktop; 220-volt outlet; Stone counters; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 bathroom (1 full)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Wall/window cooling unit(s)
• Interior features: Window coverings; Sun porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in an interior laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $96k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $96k).
• Cap rate 21.3% vs local median 3.3% in Oakley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#608 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Antioch Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #200 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 243 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $667 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.55%
• DSCR: 3.38
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $168,072
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
69 Oneida St	0.03mi	2/2.0	960 (+7%)	21mo	$180,000	$188	65
14 Geneseo St	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,020 (+14%)	6mo	$184,950	$181	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.68% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.33×
• Total profit: $62,824
• Equity at exit: $14,388

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.94×
• Total profit: $160,527
• Equity at exit: $8,344

Cash invested: $27,020 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94561

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 243
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,370 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$506
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$121 /mo · $1,448/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $1,206

Break-even live

Break-even rent $844

Max offer price $96,500

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,272	-5% $1,239	+0% $1,206	+5% $1,172	+10% $1,139
Rent	-10% $1,018	-5% $1,112	+0% $1,206	+5% $1,299	+10% $1,393
Rate	-1.0pp $1,254	-0.5pp $1,230	base $1,206	+0.5pp $1,181	+1.0pp $1,155

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,125
• Closing costs: $2,895
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
49 Carol Ln Oakley, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	686	$2,134	$3.11	0d	1	0.22mi
69 Carol Ln Oakley, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	802	$1,813	$2.26	0d	9	0.24mi
4290 Mehaffey Way Oakley, CA	2.0	2.0	750	$2,295	$3.06	3d	1	0.95mi
3560 E 18th St Antioch, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	828	$1,954	$2.36	4d	1	1.28mi
3560 E 18th St Antioch, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	828	$1,772	$2.14	0d	9	1.28mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $96,500 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $96,500 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $96,500 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $96,500 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $96,500 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $96,500 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $96,500 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-08
   listed $96,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 17 unhealthy d/yr today · 18 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,445
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,406
• − Property taxes: −$1,448
• − Insurance: −$482
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,276
• − Management: −$2,276
• − Depreciation: −$2,807
• Taxable income: $13,751
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,300
• After-tax cash flow: $11,168/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Antioch Unified
• NCES district ID: 0602850
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 25.00%
• Median HH income: $65,935
• Composite: 37.57/100
• National rank: #4386
• State rank: #200 of 517 in CA

Livability — Oakley

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #608
• US rank: #19421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oakley, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 46,368
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 46,368
• Household income: $134,678
• Rent vs Own: 22.1% rent · 77.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 614.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 15% Asian 9% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Russian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -249.42%
• Current HPI: 301.9916
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.68%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+383.7% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $96,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-03-11 Sold (MLS) $120,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-02-25 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-02-05 Listed $124,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2018-08-08 Sold (MLS) $43,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2018-07-17 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2018-06-21 Price Changed $49,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2018-05-20 Price Changed $52,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2018-05-04 Listed $57,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2015-09-30 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2015-09-11 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2015-08-13 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2015-06-30 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2010-11-16 Sold (MLS) $12,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2010-09-30 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2010-07-31 Price Changed $12,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2010-06-03 Price Changed $15,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2010-04-15 Listed $18,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2003-11-26 Sold (MLS) $15,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2003-10-21 Listed $19,950 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR