916 16th St

Seagraves, TX 79359

$53,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,402 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Pending · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,271/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$278
• Tax + insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $638/mo
• Annual: $7,652/yr
• Cap rate: 20.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.56%
• DSCR: 3.29
• 1% rule: 2.40%
• Cash to close: $14,840

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $53k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $638 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $53k).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $528 of equity ($366 loan paydown + $162 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#281 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Seagraves ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #693 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Gaines County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gaines County population projected at +58% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.