916 16th St · Seagraves, TX 79359

$53,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,402 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1970 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1970

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Gravel parking area
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public sewer; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story; Fixer condition
• Construction: Brick and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built with approximately 2,402 above-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Barbecue; Front porch; Brick and wood fencing; Paved, publicly maintained city street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $53k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $638 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $53k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#281 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Seagraves ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #693 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Gaines County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $528 of equity ($366 loan paydown + $162 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Gaines County population projected at +58% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $53,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.56%
• DSCR: 3.29
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.69×
• Total profit: $39,848
• Equity at exit: $16,204

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.40×
• Total profit: $94,904
• Equity at exit: $20,141

Cash invested: $14,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79359

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,271 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$278
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$66 /mo · $795/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $638

Break-even live

Break-even rent $464

Max offer price $53,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $674	-5% $656	+0% $638	+5% $619	+10% $601
Rent	-10% $537	-5% $587	+0% $638	+5% $688	+10% $738
Rate	-1.0pp $664	-0.5pp $651	base $638	+0.5pp $624	+1.0pp $610

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,250
• Closing costs: $1,590
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $53,000 Pending 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $53,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $53,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $53,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $53,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $53,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $53,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $53,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $53,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-05-26
    listed $53,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,250
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,969
• − Property taxes: −$795
• − Insurance: −$265
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,220
• − Management: −$1,220
• − Depreciation: −$1,542
• Taxable income: $7,239
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,737
• After-tax cash flow: $5,915/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seagraves ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839600
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $46,938
• Composite: 22.66/100
• National rank: #8053
• State rank: #693 of 826 in TX

Livability — Seagraves

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #281
• US rank: #6562

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seagraves, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,465

Population outlook (Gaines County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,287 people
• By 2030: 27,989 · +10.7%
• By 2040: 33,895 · +34.0%
• By 2050: 40,001 · +58.2%
• By 2075: 55,259 · +118.5%
• By 2100: 65,681 · +159.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 57% White 28% Two or more races 26% Black 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Polish 4% European 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 42% German/W. Germanic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Gaines

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+82.6) · D 8.4% · R 91.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.4pp toward R · 2008: -67.2pp · 2024: -82.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+82.6 2020: R+79.7 2016: R+71.8 2012: R+72.5 2008: R+67.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.31%
• Current HPI: 82.9375
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $53,000 LARMLS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,420 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.