16705 Aleutian Dr

Pine Mountain Club, CA 93222

$215,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1976 · Manufactured · Active · 128 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,206/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$212
• HOA: −$166
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $238/mo
• Annual: $2,851/yr
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.74%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $238 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $189k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,081 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Maricopa Unified (rural): math 10% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #1,302 of 1,400 in CA (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.1% in Pine Mountain Club — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.