16705 Aleutian Dr · Pine Mountain Club, CA 93222

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 128 Days on market

Built 1976 7,838 sqft lot $149/sqft · 41% above area Est $153k · 41% over $166/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Price reduction. Great location with a panoramic view of the mountains surrounding Pine Mountain Club. Very close from the village center and all amenities PMCPOA offers for members and guests. Freshly painted inside with a new flooring in two bedrooms, including master.

Key facts

• Panoramic view
• New flooring
• 7,838 sq ft lot

Tags

• PANORAMIC VIEW
• NEW FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $238 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• Recommended offer: $189k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.1% in Pine Mountain Club — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,081 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Maricopa Unified (rural): math 10% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #1,302 of 1,400 in CA (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.74%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $152,707
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: 40.79%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2717 Kodiak Way	0.01mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,464 (+2%)	24mo	$250,000	$171	72
2821 Yukon Way	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	8mo	$235,000	$175	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.83% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $610
• Equity at exit: $53,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $39,398
• Equity at exit: $57,790

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93222

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,206 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,467/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$166
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,905

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2617 Cedarwood Dr Pine Mountain Club, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,995	$1.66	3d	1	0.12mi
2232 Ironwood Dr Pine Mountain Club, CA	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,550	$1.50	3d	1	0.37mi
2235 Ironwood Dr Pine Mountain Club, CA	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,850	$1.68	3d	1	0.41mi
2317 Maplewood Way Pine Mountain Club, CA	3.0	1.5	1280	$2,150	$1.68	3d	1	0.58mi
2100 Zermatt Dr Pine Mountain Club, CA	3.0	1.5	1056	$1,649	$1.56	10d	1	1.20mi
1617 Zion Way Pine Mountain Club, CA	3.0	2.0	1776	$2,400	$1.35	2d	1	1.22mi
2105 Woodland Dr Frazier Park, CA	2.0	1.0	1298	$2,195	$1.69	3d	1	1.33mi
15425 Live Oak Way Pine Mountain Club, CA	2.0	2.0	1349	$1,950	$1.45	44d	1	1.44mi
1521 Lassen Way Pine Mountain Club, CA	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,795	$1.53	2d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $166 · $1,992/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $215,000 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $215,000 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $215,000 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    remarks 299-char remark
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $215,000 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 112 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 111 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 110 DOM
17. 2026-03-05
    price $215,000 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Price reduction. Great location with a panoramic view of the mountains surrounding Pine Mountain Club. Very close from the village center and all amenities PMCPOA offers for members and guests. Freshly painted inside with a new flooring in two bedrooms, including master.

18. 2026-02-10
    listed $225,000 Active 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Price reduction. Great location with a panoramic view of the mountains surrounding Pine Mountain Club. Very close from the village center and all amenities PMCPOA offers for members and guests. Freshly painted inside with a new flooring in two bedrooms, including master.

19. 2026-02-03
    historical
20. 2025-10-04
    listed $225,000 Active
21. 2025-07-26
    status Active
22. 2025-06-26
    historical
23. 2025-05-30
    status Pending Sale
24. 2025-04-04
    price $215,000
25. 2025-04-04
    listed $1,215,000 Active
26. 2025-03-26
    historical
27. 2025-01-01
    listed $249,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,467 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,634 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$167/yr (+$14/mo · 11.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 12 d/yr ≥81°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,475
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$1,467
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,118
• − Management: −$2,118
• − HOA: −$1,992
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$593
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$142
• After-tax cash flow: $2,994/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maricopa Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623820
• Math proficiency: 10% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $37,246
• Composite: 15.98/100
• National rank: #14303
• State rank: #1302 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Pine Mountain Club

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1081
• US rank: #25334

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment C Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Mountain Club, CA
• Population (ZIP): 2,538

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 21% Asian 16% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Dominican Republic, South Korea
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 13% Tagalog/Filipino 12% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.83%
• Current HPI: 307.7453
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-13.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $215,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $225,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-03 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-10-04 Listed $225,000 CRMLS
• 2025-07-26 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-06-26 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-05-30 Pending — CRMLS
• 2025-04-04 Price Changed $215,000 CRMLS
• 2025-04-04 Listed $1,215,000 CRMLS
• 2025-03-26 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-01-01 Listed $249,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,467 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.