201 Birch St

Ellsworth, MI 49656

$133,000B-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Active · 87 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,380/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$697
• Tax + insurance: −$241
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $152/mo
• Annual: $1,820/yr
• Cap rate: 7.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.89%
• DSCR: 1.22
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $37,240

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $133k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $152 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $133k).
• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $125k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($920 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#375 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Pine River Area Schools (rural): math 22% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #369 of 540 in MI (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (7.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $37k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.