201 Birch St · Ellsworth, MI 49656

$133,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily · 87 Days on market

Built 1955 0.40 ac lot $95/sqft · 45% below area Est $241k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 BEDROOM HOME WITH A 2 CAR GARAGE ON A LARGE CORNER LOT - COME CHECK IT OUT!

Key facts

• 0.4 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1955

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $133k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $152 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $133k).
• Recommended offer: $125k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#375 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Pine River Area Schools (rural): math 22% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #369 of 540 in MI (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($920 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $37k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $125,020 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.89%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $240,891
• List price: $133,000
• Delta: -44.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
303 Wolfe St	0.38mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,507 (+8%)	2mo	$198,000	$131	63
811 Willard Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,459 (+4%)	12mo	$249,900	$171	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.18% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $57,594
• Equity at exit: $93,715

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.30×
• Total profit: $160,111
• Equity at exit: $179,438

Cash invested: $37,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49656

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,380 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$697
• Tax from tax record: −$186 /mo · $2,231/yr
• Insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,188

Max offer price $133,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $227	-5% $189	+0% $152	+5% $114	+10% $76
Rent	-10% $43	-5% $97	+0% $152	+5% $206	+10% $261
Rate	-1.0pp $219	-0.5pp $186	base $152	+0.5pp $117	+1.0pp $82

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,250
• Closing costs: $3,990
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 46 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $133,000 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $133,000 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $133,000 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $133,000 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $133,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $133,000 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $133,000 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $133,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $133,000 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $133,000 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $133,000 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $133,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $133,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $133,000 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $133,000 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $133,000 Active 66 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    price $133,000 77-char remark

    Show marketing remark (77 chars)

    4 BEDROOM HOME WITH A 2 CAR GARAGE ON A LARGE CORNER LOT - COME CHECK IT OUT!

18. 2026-05-12
    price $133,000 77-char remark

    Show marketing remark (77 chars)

    4 BEDROOM HOME WITH A 2 CAR GARAGE ON A LARGE CORNER LOT - COME CHECK IT OUT!

19. 2026-05-12
    price $133,000

    Show marketing remark (77 chars)

    4 BEDROOM HOME WITH A 2 CAR GARAGE ON A LARGE CORNER LOT - COME CHECK IT OUT!

20. 2026-03-25
    listed $140,000 Active 77-char remark

    Show marketing remark (77 chars)

    4 BEDROOM HOME WITH A 2 CAR GARAGE ON A LARGE CORNER LOT - COME CHECK IT OUT!

21. 2026-03-25
    listed $140,000 Active 77-char remark

    Show marketing remark (77 chars)

    4 BEDROOM HOME WITH A 2 CAR GARAGE ON A LARGE CORNER LOT - COME CHECK IT OUT!

22. 2026-03-25
    listed $140,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (77 chars)

    4 BEDROOM HOME WITH A 2 CAR GARAGE ON A LARGE CORNER LOT - COME CHECK IT OUT!

23. 2023-03-07
    soldstatus $135,000 Sold
24. 2023-03-07
    soldstatus $135,000 Sold
25. 2023-03-07
    soldstatus $135,000 Sold
26. 2023-03-07
    soldstatus $135,000 Closed
27. 2023-03-07
    soldstatus $135,000
28. 2023-02-10
    historical Accepting Backup Offers
29. 2023-01-24
    historical
30. 2023-01-24
    status Pending
31. 2023-01-24
    status Pending
32. 2023-01-24
    status Pending
33. 2023-01-24
    historical Accepting Backup Offers
34. 2023-01-14
    price $129,900
35. 2023-01-14
    price $129,900
36. 2023-01-14
    price $129,900
37. 2023-01-14
    price $129,900
38. 2022-11-15
    price $134,900
39. 2022-11-15
    price $134,900
40. 2022-11-15
    price $134,900
41. 2022-10-27
    listed $139,900 Active
42. 2022-10-27
    listed $139,900 Active
43. 2022-10-27
    listed $139,900 Active
44. 2022-10-20
    listed $129,900 Active
45. 2022-10-20
    listed $134,900 Active
46. 2019-10-08
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,231 · $186/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,231 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,565
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,450
• − Property taxes: −$2,231
• − Insurance: −$665
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,325
• − Management: −$1,325
• − Depreciation: −$3,869
• Taxable loss: −$301
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$72
• After-tax cash flow: $1,893/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pine River Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2628200
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,589
• Composite: 25.34/100
• National rank: #7475
• State rank: #369 of 540 in MI

Livability — Ellsworth

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #375
• US rank: #9810

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Luther, MI
• Population (ZIP): 2,111

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,933 people
• By 2030: 10,503 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 9,470 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 8,526 · -22.0%
• By 2075: 7,160 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 5,634 · -48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.2) · D 33.2% · R 65.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.5pp toward R · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: -32.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.2 2020: R+26.2 2016: R+22.9 2012: D+5.0 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.18%
• Current HPI: 216.7299
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+104.6% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $133,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $133,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $133,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $140,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $140,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-25 Listed $140,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2023-03-07 Sold (MLS) $135,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-03-07 Sold (MLS) $135,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2023-03-07 Sold (MLS) $135,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-03-07 Sold (MLS) $135,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-02-10 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2023-01-24 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2023-01-24 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2023-01-24 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-01-24 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2023-01-24 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-01-14 Price Changed $129,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-01-14 Price Changed $129,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-01-14 Price Changed $129,900 REALCOMP
• 2023-01-14 Price Changed $129,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2022-11-15 Price Changed $134,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-11-15 Price Changed $134,900 REALCOMP
• 2022-11-15 Price Changed $134,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2022-10-27 Listed $139,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2022-10-27 Listed $139,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-10-27 Listed $139,900 REALCOMP
• 2022-10-20 Listed $134,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-10-20 Listed $129,900 REALCOMP
• 2019-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,231 · +145.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.