415 E Water St

Wellsville, MO 63384

$54,900B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,228 sqft · Built 1920 · Other · Active · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,099/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax + insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $489/mo
• Annual: $5,866/yr
• Cap rate: 16.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.16%
• DSCR: 2.70
• 1% rule: 2.00%
• Cash to close: $15,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $55k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $489 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $52k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#275 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Wellsville Middletown R-I (rural): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #433 of 535 in MO (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wellsville-Middletown Elem. (math 37% / reading 27%, grade F, #761 of 1,115 statewide, top 72%, 148 students, 60% FRL); Wellsville-Middletown Hs (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #247 of 521 statewide, top 55%, 163 students, 53% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 47 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at -31% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.