415 E Water St · Wellsville, MO 63384

$54,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,228 sqft · Other public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1920 1.28 ac lot ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

1.5 story home with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, full basement, large 2-car detached garage on 1.28 ac. All 28 windows have been replaced with energy efficient windows, insulation blown in attic and outside walls, put in central heating and air conditioning, replaced sewer pipes to road, upper story completely gutted and remodeled, new wood flooring in kitchen and dining room, laundry moved to main floor, replaced front and back doors, upper floor air conditioners stay with property, replaced diswasher, replaced carpet in living room and main floor bedroom, built cabinet above shower in main floor bathroom. AS OF 7/9/12 house has Limited Lifetime Warranty from Foundation Recovery Systems for waterproofing basement and installing anchors. Full Transferable Warranty.

Key facts

• Full basement
• 1.28 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• FULL COVERED FRONT PORCH
• CLASSIC HARDWOOD FLOORS
• COZY WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• FULL BASEMENT
• OVERSIZED DETACHED GARAGE
• LARGE SHADED CORNER LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Above-grade finished area reported by appraiser; Living area reported by assessor
• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: No HOA information provided

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Security: No security features provided
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Single-phase electric; Electricity, phone, sewer, and water available/connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-and-one-half levels; Bank ownership
• Construction: Wood siding; Architectural shingle roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Has a concrete, unfinished basement
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Storage structure on property; Adjoins open ground; Back yard; City lot; Corner lot; Irregular lot; Asphalt road frontage on a city street

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen appliance details provided
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms total, including one on the main level and two on the upper level
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on the main level, one on the upper level)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: No laundry or utility appliance details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $489 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $52k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#275 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Wellsville Middletown R-I (rural): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #433 of 535 in MO (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wellsville-Middletown Elem. (math 37% / reading 27%, grade F, #761 of 1,115 statewide, top 72%, 148 students, 60% FRL); Wellsville-Middletown Hs (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #247 of 521 statewide, top 55%, 163 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 47 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at -31% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $51,606 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.16%
• DSCR: 2.70
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.85% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.62×
• Total profit: $40,261
• Equity at exit: $27,341

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.29×
• Total profit: $96,745
• Equity at exit: $44,328

Cash invested: $15,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63384

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,099 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $820/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $489

Break-even live

Break-even rent $480

Max offer price $54,900

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $520	-5% $504	+0% $489	+5% $473	+10% $458
Rent	-10% $402	-5% $445	+0% $489	+5% $532	+10% $576
Rate	-1.0pp $517	-0.5pp $503	base $489	+0.5pp $475	+1.0pp $460

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,725
• Closing costs: $1,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $54,900 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $54,900 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $54,900 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $54,900 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $54,900 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $54,900 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $54,900 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $54,900 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $54,900 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $54,900 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $54,900 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $54,900 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $54,900 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $54,900 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $54,900 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    price $54,900
17. 2026-04-09
    listed $64,900 Active
18. 2012-10-11
    soldstatus 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    1.5 story home with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, full basement, large 2-car detached garage on 1.28 ac. All 28 windows have been replaced with energy efficient windows, insulation blown in attic and outside walls, put in central heating and air conditioning, replaced sewer pipes to road, upper story completely gutted and remodeled, new wood flooring in kitchen and dining room, laundry moved to main floor, replaced front and back doors, upper floor air conditioners stay with property, replaced diswasher, replaced carpet in living room and main floor bedroom, built cabinet above shower in main floor bathroom. AS OF 7/9/12 house has Limited Lifetime Warranty from Foundation Recovery Systems for waterproofing basement and installing anchors. Full Transferable Warranty.

19. 2011-04-21
    listed $62,000 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    1.5 story home with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, full basement, large 2-car detached garage on 1.28 ac. All 28 windows have been replaced with energy efficient windows, insulation blown in attic and outside walls, put in central heating and air conditioning, replaced sewer pipes to road, upper story completely gutted and remodeled, new wood flooring in kitchen and dining room, laundry moved to main floor, replaced front and back doors, upper floor air conditioners stay with property, replaced diswasher, replaced carpet in living room and main floor bedroom, built cabinet above shower in main floor bathroom. AS OF 7/9/12 house has Limited Lifetime Warranty from Foundation Recovery Systems for waterproofing basement and installing anchors. Full Transferable Warranty.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $820 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $820 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,184
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,075
• − Property taxes: −$820
• − Insurance: −$274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,055
• − Management: −$1,055
• − Depreciation: −$1,597
• Taxable income: $5,308
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,274
• After-tax cash flow: $4,592/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wellsville Middletown R-I
• NCES district ID: 2931620
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,226
• Composite: 29.86/100
• National rank: #11693
• State rank: #433 of 535 in MO

Livability — Wellsville

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #275
• US rank: #12860

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wellsville, MO
• Population (ZIP): 2,148

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,582 people
• By 2030: 9,897 · -6.5%
• By 2040: 8,556 · -19.1%
• By 2050: 7,293 · -31.1%
• By 2075: 4,998 · -52.8%
• By 2100: 3,204 · -69.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.1) · D 19.5% · R 79.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.7pp toward R · 2008: -18.5pp · 2024: -60.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.1 2020: R+56.4 2016: R+55.4 2012: R+33.0 2008: R+18.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.85%
• Current HPI: 143.7565
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-11.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $54,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Listed $64,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-11 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-04-21 Listed $62,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $820 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.