8104 Willow St

Willow River, MN 55795

$155,000D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Pending · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $957/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax + insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$201
• Net cashflow: $-154/mo
• Annual: $-1,852/yr
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.27%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $43,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-154 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $128k (17.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $96k (38.2% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $96k (38.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#806 in MN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Willow River Public School District (rural): math 24% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #261 of 301 in MN (top 87%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willow River Elementary (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #579 of 857 statewide, top 69%, 218 students, 46% FRL); Willow River Secondary (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #383 of 471 statewide, top 88%, 195 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 116 units permitted in Pine County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pine County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.