8104 Willow St · Willow River, MN 55795

$155,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2000 0.52 ac lot ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this well maintained 2 bedroom, 1 bath home set on . 52 acres. The home has been thoughtfully renovated throughout, offering a fresh and updated feel. Inside, you’ll appreciate the updated flooring, warm wood trim, and hardwood floors in the bedrooms. The property also includes a spacious 20x30 insulated 2 car garage and an 8x9 storage shed, offering excellent space for parking, hobbies, and storage. The home is connected to city water and also includes a private well, ideal for watering, gardening, or filling a pool. The yard provides a nice mix of open space and room to enjoy the outdoors, making it easy to garden, entertain, or simply relax. An excellent opportunity for

Key facts

• 0.52 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2000

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with other surface; Insulated 2-car garage with automatic door opener; Garage dimensions approximately 20 x 30; garage door height 7 ft
• Utilities: City water connected; Drilled well; City sewer connected; Natural gas; Electric service with circuit breakers and 100 amp service; Power provided by Minnesota Power
• Home design: Residential property; Manufactured home (yes); One level; Main entry and living spaces on one level
• Construction: Frame construction; Asphalt roof (age 8 years or less); Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built on a foundation approximately 16 x 70
• Exterior features: Deck; Vinyl exterior; Storage shed; Irregular lot with medium tree coverage; City street frontage; Public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Exhaust fan; Kitchen with breakfast area / eat-in space
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level); Primary bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: All living facilities on one level; Main floor primary bedroom; Main floor bedroom; Main floor laundry; Renovated; Ceiling fan(s); Hardwood floors; Kitchen window; Primary bedroom walk-in closet; Breakfast area / Eat-in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Main floor laundry room; Electric dryer hookup; Washer hookup; Washer and Dryer listed among appliances; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-154 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $128k (17.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $96k (38.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $96k (38.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#806 in MN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Willow River Public School District (rural): math 24% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #261 of 301 in MN (top 87%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willow River Elementary (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #579 of 857 statewide, top 69%, 218 students, 46% FRL); Willow River Secondary (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #383 of 471 statewide, top 88%, 195 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 116 units permitted in Pine County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pine County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $95,733 (38.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.27%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $74,506
• Equity at exit: $139,636

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.23×
• Total profit: $226,967
• Equity at exit: $301,131

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55795

• Home prices YoY: 11.1%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $957 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $398/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$201
• Net cashflow: $-154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,153

Max offer price $127,743

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-67	-5% $-110	+0% $-154	+5% $-198	+10% $-242
Rent	-10% $-230	-5% $-192	+0% $-154	+5% $-116	+10% $-79
Rate	-1.0pp $-76	-0.5pp $-115	base $-154	+0.5pp $-194	+1.0pp $-235

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-14
   historical Contingent - Inspection 765-char remark
2. 2026-05-11
   price $155,000 765-char remark
3. 2026-05-01
   listed $165,000 Active 765-char remark
4. 2026-04-28
   historical $165,000 765-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $398 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,067 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: +$669/yr (+$56/mo · 168.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,488
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$398
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$919
• − Management: −$919
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$4,715
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,132
• After-tax cash flow: $-720/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willow River Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2742750
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $42,510
• Composite: 29.14/100
• National rank: #6584
• State rank: #261 of 301 in MN

Livability — Willow River

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #806
• US rank: #20791

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willow River, MN
• Population (ZIP): 1,876

Population outlook (Pine County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,565 people
• By 2030: 26,567 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 23,878 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 20,931 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 15,372 · -44.2%
• By 2100: 11,032 · -60.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Portuguese 9% Italian 6%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pine

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.2) · D 31.6% · R 66.8% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.5pp · 2024: -35.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.2 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+26.3 2012: R+0.7 2008: D+1.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.82%
• Current HPI: 237.7192
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-6.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $155,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $165,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Coming Soon $165,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $398 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.