15 Lake Village Ct #15

Johnson City, TN 37601

$1,500D+

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,040 sqft · Built 2000 · SingleFamily · Active · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,590/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8
• Tax + insurance: −$2
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $1,246/mo
• Annual: $14,948/yr
• Cap rate: 1002.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 3558.95%
• DSCR: 159.35
• 1% rule: 105.99%
• Cash to close: $420

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $2k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $2k).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($1k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $45 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#8 in TN, #3,349 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment F.
• Johnson City (urban): math 46% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #9 of 139 in TN (top 6%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Ridge Elementary (math 65% / reading 52%, grade B-, #67 of 952 statewide, top 7%, 627 students, 0% FRL); Indian Trail Middle School (math 48% / reading 43%, grade D+, #28 of 333 statewide, top 8%, 808 students, 0% FRL); Science Hill High School (math 37% / reading 60%, grade D, #13 of 332 statewide, top 4%, 2,401 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 44% district-wide (44 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,155 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (437 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.9% rent growth), your $420 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1002.8% vs local median 3.1% in Johnson City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.