15 Lake Village Ct #15 · Johnson City, TN 37601

$1,500

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily · 36 Days on market

Built 2000 $1/sqft · 99% below area ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

FRESH REMODELED LAKEFRONT CONDO- WITH GARAGE AND BOAT SLIP. Located in the city school district. Features 2 BR, 2 1/2 BA, underground utilities, , beautifully landscaped grounds w/ irrigation system, , lovely views of Boone Lake. RENT INCLUDES WATER, SEWER , TRASH. Just across the highway from Wing Deer Park . Minutes to all shopping and dining , medical and schools. FOR RENT ONLY - OWNER/AGENT

Key facts

• Landscaped grounds
• Views of boone lake
• Lakefront condo

Tags

• LAKEFRONT CONDO
• BOAT SLIP
• UNDERGROUND UTILITIES
• LANDSCAPED GROUNDS
• VIEWS OF BOONE LAKE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: RS
• HOA & community: Community sidewalks; Street lights; Community lake

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Townhouse; Two levels; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Updated/remodeled condition
• Exterior features: Balcony; Dock; Waterfront; Lake privileges; Sloped topography

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 8 rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump cooling; Electric forced-air heating
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled interior; Balcony; Dock; Lake view
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $1,500 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$199,687) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $2k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $2k).
• Recommended offer: $1k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 1002.8% vs local median 3.1% in Johnson City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#8 in TN, #3,349 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment F.
• Johnson City (urban): math 46% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #9 of 139 in TN (top 6%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Ridge Elementary (math 65% / reading 52%, grade B-, #67 of 952 statewide, top 7%, 627 students, 0% FRL); Indian Trail Middle School (math 48% / reading 43%, grade D+, #28 of 333 statewide, top 8%, 808 students, 0% FRL); Science Hill High School (math 37% / reading 60%, grade D, #13 of 332 statewide, top 4%, 2,401 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 44% district-wide (44 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 206 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,155 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (437 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $45 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.9% rent growth), your $420 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($1k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,455 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 105.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 1002.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 3558.95%
• DSCR: 159.35
• GRM: 0.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $199,687
• List price: $1,500
• Delta: -99.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15 Lake Village Ct #15	0.00mi	2/2.5	1,040 (0%)	0mo	$1,500	$1	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 196.67×
• Total profit: $82,179
• Equity at exit: $224

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 445.95×
• Total profit: $186,878
• Equity at exit: $130

Cash invested: $420 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37601

• Home prices YoY: -21.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 0.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,590 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$2 /mo · $22/yr
• Insurance: −$1
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $1,246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $13

Max offer price $1,500

Occupancy floor 17%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,247	-5% $1,246	+0% $1,246	+5% $1,245	+10% $1,245
Rent	-10% $1,120	-5% $1,183	+0% $1,246	+5% $1,308	+10% $1,371
Rate	-1.0pp $1,246	-0.5pp $1,246	base $1,246	+0.5pp $1,245	+1.0pp $1,245

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $375
• Closing costs: $45
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
124 Harber Ln Johnson City, TN	2.0	2.0	1104	$2,000	$1.81	14d	1	0.99mi
1301 Cobblestone Ct Johnson City, TN	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	14d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $1,500 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $1,500 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $1,500 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $1,500 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-05-08
   price $1,500 398-char remark
6. 2026-04-27
   listed $1,700 Active 398-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,078
• − Mortgage interest: −$84
• − Property taxes: −$22
• − Insurance: −$8
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,526
• − Management: −$1,526
• − Depreciation: −$44
• Taxable income: $15,868
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,808
• After-tax cash flow: $11,139/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnson City
• NCES district ID: 4702130
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $37,514
• Composite: 38.69/100
• National rank: #4143
• State rank: #9 of 139 in TN

Livability — Johnson City

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #3349

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Johnson City, TN
• County: Washington County · 129,006 people
• City population: 99,926
• Metro: Johnson City, TN
• Population (ZIP): 38,008
• Household income: $50,686
• Rent vs Own: 44.1% rent · 55.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1464.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 132,816 people
• By 2030: 135,823 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 140,897 · +6.1%
• By 2050: 145,073 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 156,386 · +17.7%
• By 2100: 159,893 · +20.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.6% · R 69.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+36.2 2016: R+42.9 2012: R+38.5 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.16%
• Current HPI: 290.506
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.88%
• Metro: Johnson City, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-11.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Sold (MLS) $1,500 TVRMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $1,500 TVRMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $1,700 TVRMLS