52 54 John St

Valley Falls, RI 02864

$695,000D-

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,110 sqft · Built 1910 · MultiFamily · Pending · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,432/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,645
• Tax + insurance: −$765
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,141
• Net cashflow: $-119/mo
• Annual: $-1,423/yr
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.73%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $194,600

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $695k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-119 ($-1k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-59/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $674k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $543k (21.8% below list).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($674k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $543k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#8 in RI, #4,293 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Cumberland (suburban): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #9 of 39 in RI (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 141 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 776 units permitted in Providence County in 2024 (229 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Providence County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $265k; list at $695k implies a 162% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.3% in Valley Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,432/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($118k/yr) (locally 771% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?