52 54 John St · Valley Falls, RI 02864

$695,000

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,110 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1910 6,098 sqft lot $223/sqft · 32% above area Est $696k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the perfect blend of comfort, flexibility, and convenience in this move-in ready multi-family home ideal for investors or owner-occupants alike. Each unit offers thoughtful layouts with spacious living areas, including two en-suite bathrooms that provide privacy and ease for everyday living. Outside, enjoy a fully fenced-in yard perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or pets along with a detached two-car garage that adds both convenience and value. The unfinished basement offers ample storage and potential for future use, giving you room to grow. Situated in a highly convenient location close to major routes, this property checks all the boxes for both lifestyle and investment potential. Don't miss this exceptional opportunity!

Key facts

• Fully fenced-in yard
• Unfinished basement
• 6,098 sq ft lot

Tags

• FULLY FENCED-IN YARD
• DETACHED TWO-CAR GARAGE
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• HIGHLY CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $695k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-119 ($-1k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-59/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $674k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $543k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $543k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.3% in Valley Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#8 in RI, #4,293 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Cumberland (suburban): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #9 of 39 in RI (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 141 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 776 units permitted in Providence County in 2024 (229 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,432/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($118k/yr) (locally 771% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Providence County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($674k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $265k; list at $695k implies a 162% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $543,200 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.73%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $696,048
• List price: $695,000
• Delta: -0.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
309 High St	0.30mi	5/2.5 (-1)	3,255 (+5%)	7mo	$549,000	$169	66
24 Arnold St	0.63mi	7/3.0 (+1)	2,844 (-9%)	1mo	$640,000	$225	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-136,249
• Equity at exit: $103,627

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-190,534
• Equity at exit: $60,091

Cash invested: $194,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 31 Tenant-Leaning
• State Rhode Island: 31 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; strong tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 02864

• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 21.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,432 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,645
• Tax from tax record: −$476 /mo · $5,707/yr
• Insurance: −$290
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,141
• Net cashflow: $-119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,582

Max offer price $674,059

Occupancy floor 97%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1	$5,432
Total (2 units)			$5,432

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $173,750
• Closing costs: $20,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $695,000 Pending 51 DOM
2. 2026-05-18
   historical Active Under Contract 743-char remark

   Show marketing remark (743 chars)

   Discover the perfect blend of comfort, flexibility, and convenience in this move-in ready multi-family home ideal for investors or owner-occupants alike. Each unit offers thoughtful layouts with spacious living areas, including two en-suite bathrooms that provide privacy and ease for everyday living. Outside, enjoy a fully fenced-in yard perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or pets along with a detached two-car garage that adds both convenience and value. The unfinished basement offers ample storage and potential for future use, giving you room to grow. Situated in a highly convenient location close to major routes, this property checks all the boxes for both lifestyle and investment potential. Don't miss this exceptional opportunity!

3. 2026-05-07
   status Active 743-char remark

   Show marketing remark (743 chars)

   Discover the perfect blend of comfort, flexibility, and convenience in this move-in ready multi-family home ideal for investors or owner-occupants alike. Each unit offers thoughtful layouts with spacious living areas, including two en-suite bathrooms that provide privacy and ease for everyday living. Outside, enjoy a fully fenced-in yard perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or pets along with a detached two-car garage that adds both convenience and value. The unfinished basement offers ample storage and potential for future use, giving you room to grow. Situated in a highly convenient location close to major routes, this property checks all the boxes for both lifestyle and investment potential. Don't miss this exceptional opportunity!

4. 2026-04-26
   historical Active Under Contract 743-char remark

   Show marketing remark (743 chars)

   Discover the perfect blend of comfort, flexibility, and convenience in this move-in ready multi-family home ideal for investors or owner-occupants alike. Each unit offers thoughtful layouts with spacious living areas, including two en-suite bathrooms that provide privacy and ease for everyday living. Outside, enjoy a fully fenced-in yard perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or pets along with a detached two-car garage that adds both convenience and value. The unfinished basement offers ample storage and potential for future use, giving you room to grow. Situated in a highly convenient location close to major routes, this property checks all the boxes for both lifestyle and investment potential. Don't miss this exceptional opportunity!

5. 2026-04-09
   listed $695,000 Active 743-char remark

   Show marketing remark (743 chars)

   Discover the perfect blend of comfort, flexibility, and convenience in this move-in ready multi-family home ideal for investors or owner-occupants alike. Each unit offers thoughtful layouts with spacious living areas, including two en-suite bathrooms that provide privacy and ease for everyday living. Outside, enjoy a fully fenced-in yard perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or pets along with a detached two-car garage that adds both convenience and value. The unfinished basement offers ample storage and potential for future use, giving you room to grow. Situated in a highly convenient location close to major routes, this property checks all the boxes for both lifestyle and investment potential. Don't miss this exceptional opportunity!

6. 2019-09-20
   price $159,900 199-char remark

   Show marketing remark (199 chars)

   WELL MAINTAINED 2 FAMILY HOME IN A GREAT LOCATION. LOTS OF STORAGE W/ SEPARATE UTILITIES IN EACH UNIT. 3RD FLOOR ROUGHED FOR GAS HEAT WITH 4 EXTRA BEDROOMS! FENCED IN YARD WITH 2 CAR DETACHED GARAGE.

7. 2013-12-19
   price $269,600
8. 2013-08-16
   soldstatus $265,000
9. 2013-08-15
   soldstatus $265,000
10. 2013-05-23
    historical
11. 2012-11-28
    listed $279,600
12. 2003-10-01
    soldstatus $239,000
13. 2003-08-07
    historical
14. 2003-07-18
    listed $249,900
15. 2002-03-01
    soldstatus $150,000 199-char remark

    Show marketing remark (199 chars)

    WELL MAINTAINED 2 FAMILY HOME IN A GREAT LOCATION. LOTS OF STORAGE W/ SEPARATE UTILITIES IN EACH UNIT. 3RD FLOOR ROUGHED FOR GAS HEAT WITH 4 EXTRA BEDROOMS! FENCED IN YARD WITH 2 CAR DETACHED GARAGE.

16. 2001-12-11
    historical 199-char remark

    Show marketing remark (199 chars)

    WELL MAINTAINED 2 FAMILY HOME IN A GREAT LOCATION. LOTS OF STORAGE W/ SEPARATE UTILITIES IN EACH UNIT. 3RD FLOOR ROUGHED FOR GAS HEAT WITH 4 EXTRA BEDROOMS! FENCED IN YARD WITH 2 CAR DETACHED GARAGE.

17. 2001-09-11
    listed $164,900 199-char remark

    Show marketing remark (199 chars)

    WELL MAINTAINED 2 FAMILY HOME IN A GREAT LOCATION. LOTS OF STORAGE W/ SEPARATE UTILITIES IN EACH UNIT. 3RD FLOOR ROUGHED FOR GAS HEAT WITH 4 EXTRA BEDROOMS! FENCED IN YARD WITH 2 CAR DETACHED GARAGE.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast RI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,707 · $476/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,518 · $710/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,811/yr (+$234/mo · 49.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $65,184
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,931
• − Property taxes: −$5,707
• − Insurance: −$3,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,215
• − Management: −$5,215
• − Depreciation: −$20,218
• Taxable loss: −$13,576
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,258
• After-tax cash flow: $1,836/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland
• NCES district ID: 4400270
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $75,407
• Composite: 41.85/100
• National rank: #3382
• State rank: #9 of 39 in RI

Livability — Valley Falls

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #4293

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Valley Falls, RI
• County: Providence County · 548,917 people
• Metro: Providence-Warwick, RI-MA
• Population (ZIP): 36,820
• Household income: $117,522
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 771.0

Population outlook (Providence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 653,469 people
• By 2030: 660,819 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 672,747 · +3.0%
• By 2050: 683,741 · +4.6%
• By 2075: 720,435 · +10.2%
• By 2100: 741,582 · +13.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Russian 10% Romanian 6%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Providence

• 2024 margin: D (+14.4) · D 56.1% · R 41.7% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: 34.4pp · 2024: 14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.4 2020: D+22.9 2016: D+21.2 2012: D+34.9 2008: D+34.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -461.15%
• Current HPI: 313.0341
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Metro: Providence-Warwick, RI-MA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.25%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in RI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$373B
▸Food Distribution	1	$31B
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$14B
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$4B

Price history

+321.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Contingent — RIS
• 2026-05-07 Relisted — RIS
• 2026-04-26 Contingent — RIS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $695,000 RIS
• 2019-09-20 Price Changed $159,900 RIS
• 2013-12-19 Price Changed $269,600 RIS
• 2013-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $265,000 Public Records
• 2013-08-15 Sold (MLS) $265,000 RIS
• 2013-05-23 Listing Removed — RIS
• 2012-11-28 Listed $279,600 RIS
• 2003-10-01 Sold (MLS) $239,000 RIS
• 2003-08-07 Listing Removed — RIS
• 2003-07-18 Listed $249,900 RIS
• 2002-03-01 Sold (MLS) $150,000 RIS
• 2001-12-11 Listing Removed — RIS
• 2001-09-11 Listed $164,900 RIS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,707 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.