149 Running Bear

Quitman, TX 75783

$144,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 1940 · Manufactured · Active · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,243/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$216
• HOA: −$57
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $-51/mo
• Annual: $-613/yr
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.51%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $40,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-51 ($-613/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (14.2% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $124k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in TX, #3,504 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Quitman ISD (town): math 36% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #381 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Quitman El (math 40% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,437 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 581 students, 64% FRL); Quitman J H (math 38% / reading 44%, grade F, #613 of 1,662 statewide, top 38%, 270 students, 58% FRL); Quitman H S (math 22% / reading 62%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 365 students, 53% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 343 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Wood County in 2024 (29 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wood County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 10 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.9% in Quitman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.