149 Running Bear · Quitman, TX 75783

$144,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 9 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1940 Good condition $100/sqft · at area comps Est $151k · at est. $57/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 42% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -3.6

Listing remarks

This well-maintained, move-in-ready home offers generous living space and a comfortable, functional layout within the gated Holiday Village community on Lake Fork in Quitman. Designed for easy living, the home features open, flexible living areas and a spacious primary suite with a large ensuite bath, complete with a relaxing garden tub. Clean finishes and updated flooring in main living areas create a bright, inviting interior that’s easy to maintain and ready to enjoy. The layout works equally well for full-time living, weekend use, or lock-and-leave convenience, making it a great fit for retirees, families, or fishermen seeking space without excess upkeep.

Key facts

• Built 1940
• Listed 8 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-51 ($-613/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $124k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.9% in Quitman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in TX, #3,504 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Quitman ISD (town): math 36% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #381 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Quitman El (math 40% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,437 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 581 students, 64% FRL); Quitman J H (math 38% / reading 44%, grade F, #613 of 1,662 statewide, top 38%, 270 students, 58% FRL); Quitman H S (math 22% / reading 62%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 365 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 343 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Wood County in 2024 (29 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wood County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 10 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $124,309 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.51%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,984
• List price: $144,900
• Delta: -4.03%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
454 Geronimo	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,456 (0%)	9mo	$162,969	$112	83
525 Comanche	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,343 (-8%)	16mo	$149,900	$112	59
498 Indian Gap	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-16%)	18mo	$79,900	$66	47
465 Comanche	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,178 (-19%)	16mo	$119,900	$102	45
220 Broken Bow Ln	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,712 (+18%)	19mo	$155,000	$91	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-26,697
• Equity at exit: $21,605

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-27,282
• Equity at exit: $12,528

Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 12 active · 3 under contract
• Median asking: $199,950 ($149/sqft)
• Median days on market: 166 d
• This list price: 8% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -30.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75783

• Home prices YoY: -9.6%
• Active inventory: 343
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,243 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$156 /mo · $1,871/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$57
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $-51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,308

Max offer price $135,872

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $31	-5% $-10	+0% $-51	+5% $-92	+10% $-133
Rent	-10% $-149	-5% $-100	+0% $-51	+5% $-2	+10% $47
Rate	-1.0pp $22	-0.5pp $-14	base $-51	+0.5pp $-89	+1.0pp $-127

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,225
• Closing costs: $4,347
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly homeowners association fee of $57Lake community

Exterior

• Security: Security gate
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured homeOne level
• Construction: Composition roofPillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Rain guttersDog runCovered patio or porchPartial fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen islandElectric rangeDishwasherDisposalRefrigeratorElectric oven
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heatingCentral air conditioningCeiling fans
• Interior features: Double vanityFireplacePantry

HOA detail $57/mo · $684/yr

• Likely covers: security

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $144,900 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $144,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $144,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $144,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $144,900 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $144,900 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $144,900 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   pricedays on marketlisting id $144,900 Active 1 DOM
9. 2026-08-31
   days on market $159,900 Active 222 DOM
10. 2026-08-29
    days on market $159,900 Active 221 DOM
11. 2026-08-28
    days on market $159,900 Active 220 DOM
12. 2026-08-27
    days on market $159,900 Active 219 DOM
13. 2026-08-26
    days on market $159,900 Active 218 DOM
14. 2026-08-25
    days on market $159,900 Active 217 DOM
15. 2026-08-24
    days on market $159,900 Active 216 DOM
16. 2026-08-23
    days on market $159,900 Active 215 DOM
17. 2026-08-22
    days on market $159,900 Active 214 DOM
18. 2026-08-21
    days on market $159,900 Active 213 DOM
19. 2026-08-20
    days on market $159,900 Active 212 DOM
20. 2026-08-19
    days on market $159,900 Active 211 DOM
21. 2026-08-18
    days on market $159,900 Active 210 DOM
22. 2026-08-17
    days on market $159,900 Active 209 DOM
23. 2026-08-16
    days on market $159,900 Active 208 DOM
24. 2026-08-15
    days on market $159,900 Active 207 DOM
25. 2026-08-14
    days on market $159,900 Active 206 DOM
26. 2026-08-13
    days on market $159,900 Active 205 DOM
27. 2026-08-12
    days on market $159,900 Active 204 DOM
28. 2026-08-11
    days on market $159,900 Active 203 DOM
29. 2026-08-10
    days on market $159,900 Active 202 DOM
30. 2026-08-09
    days on market $159,900 Active 201 DOM
31. 2026-08-08
    days on market $159,900 Active 200 DOM
32. 2026-08-07
    days on market $159,900 Active 199 DOM
33. 2026-08-06
    days on market $159,900 Active 198 DOM
34. 2026-08-05
    days on market $159,900 Active 197 DOM
35. 2026-08-04
    days on market $159,900 Active 196 DOM
36. 2026-08-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 195 DOM
37. 2026-07-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 192 DOM
38. 2026-07-30
    days on market $159,900 Active 191 DOM
39. 2026-07-29
    days on market $159,900 Active 190 DOM
40. 2026-07-27
    days on market $159,900 Active 188 DOM
41. 2026-07-26
    days on market $159,900 Active 187 DOM
42. 2026-07-24
    days on market $159,900 Active 185 DOM
43. 2026-07-23
    days on market $159,900 Active 184 DOM
44. 2026-07-22
    days on market $159,900 Active 183 DOM
45. 2026-07-21
    days on market $159,900 Active 182 DOM
46. 2026-07-20
    days on market $159,900 Active 181 DOM
47. 2026-07-18
    days on market $159,900 Active 179 DOM
48. 2026-07-17
    days on market $159,900 Active 178 DOM
49. 2026-07-14
    days on market $159,900 Active 175 DOM
50. 2026-07-13
    days on market $159,900 Active 174 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,871 · $156/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,652 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$781/yr (+$65/mo · 41.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,917
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,117
• − Property taxes: −$1,871
• − Insurance: −$724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,193
• − Management: −$1,193
• − HOA: −$684
• − Depreciation: −$4,215
• Taxable loss: −$3,081
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$739
• After-tax cash flow: $126/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready home in Holiday Village offers a good condition with modern updates and a spacious layout, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior fence — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Freshens look and improves energy efficiency ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Quitman El F TX #1,437/4,322 Nat'l #18,859/41,679 Middle Quitman J H F TX #613/1,662 Nat'l #5,727/14,009 High Quitman H S F TX #730/1,632 Nat'l #7,572/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Quitman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836300
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,081
• Composite: 34.94/100
• National rank: #5063
• State rank: #381 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Quitman

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #3504

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Wood · 46,480 people
• Population (ZIP): 8,011
• Household income: $61,631
• Rent vs Own: 13.4% rent · 86.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Wood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,480 people
• By 2030: 47,796 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 50,142 · +7.9%
• By 2050: 52,122 · +12.1%
• By 2075: 57,033 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 56,418 · +21.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

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Political lean MEDSL · Wood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.7) · D 14.8% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -69.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.7 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+70.0 2012: R+64.2 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.83%
• Current HPI: 234.4883
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly homeowners association fee of $57Lake community

Exterior

• Security: Security gate
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured homeOne level
• Construction: Composition roofPillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Rain guttersDog runCovered patio or porchPartial fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen islandElectric rangeDishwasherDisposalRefrigeratorElectric oven
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heatingCentral air conditioningCeiling fans
• Interior features: Double vanityFireplacePantry

Price history

-42.0% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-10-30 Listed $144,900 GTAR
• 2026-06-30 Price Changed $159,900 NTREIS
• 2026-06-30 Price Changed $159,900 GTAR
• 2026-06-30 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $164,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $164,900 GTAR
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $169,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $169,900 GTAR
• 2026-01-23 Listed $179,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $179,900 GTAR
• 2025-11-07 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $170,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $165,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-28 Listed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-22 Price Changed $209,900 LAAR
• 2025-04-10 Listed $215,900 GTAR
• 2025-03-31 Listed $215,900 LAAR
• 2024-07-17 Price Changed $199,999 GTAR
• 2024-06-03 Listed $219,000 GTAR
• 2024-02-04 Price Changed $194,500 GTAR
• 2023-12-13 Price Changed $199,900 GTAR
• 2023-10-22 Price Changed $209,000 GTAR
• 2023-09-13 Listed $215,000 GTAR
• 2023-07-07 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-06-19 Price Changed $224,999 NTREIS
• 2023-04-06 Price Changed $234,000 NTREIS
• 2023-01-26 Price Changed $239,000 NTREIS
• 2023-01-09 Listed $224,999 GTAR
• 2023-01-08 Listed $249,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,871 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.