16746 Lincoln St

Hazel Crest, IL 60429

$235,000D-

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,732 sqft · Built 1909 · SingleFamily · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,316/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$645
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $-47/mo
• Annual: $-570/yr
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.87%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $65,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-47 ($-570/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (1.4% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $227k (3.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#229 in IL, #4,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1909 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 14 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask is 124% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $235k implies a 224% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 9.0% in Hazel Crest — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1909 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.