16746 Lincoln St · Hazel Crest, IL 60429

$235,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,732 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1909 0.36 ac lot Est $234k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Incredibly rare opportunity to add instant sweat equity to this massive 1,968 square foot 4-bed, 2-bath home in Hazel Crest. This former 2-unit has been gutted to the studs and is ready for your renovation ideas. This is a must see! Sold strictly as-is. No survey. Cash or renovation loans only. Must take subject to any municipal requirements.

Key facts

• New front porch
• New water tanks
• New furnaces

Tags

• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW ROOF
• NEW FRONT PORCH
• NEW WATER TANKS
• NEW FURNACES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Two units in building; Unit 1 (1st floor): 2 bedrooms, 1 full bath, 5 rooms, tenant pays electric, gas, heat; current rent $1,625; lease through Dec 1, 2026; $0 security deposit; Unit 2 (2nd floor): 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, 5 rooms, tenant pays electric, gas, heat; current rent $1,900; lease through Dec 1, 2026; 3-bedroom unit(s) present in building
• Financial info: Special service area: No; Holds earnest money; Possession at closing

Exterior

• Parking: Off-site parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Two- to four-unit property; Fee simple ownership; Rehab planned in 2025; Built 61–70 years ago; Built before 1978
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 125 x 125; Lot smaller than 0.25 acre; Off-site parking

Interior

• Kitchen: Each unit includes stove and refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms (5 possible)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (building total)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating
• Interior features: 10 total rooms; Unfinished full basement; CO detectors; Multiple water heaters (gas)
• Laundry & utility: Multiple water heaters (gas)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-47 ($-570/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (1.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (3.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 8.9% in Hazel Crest — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#229 in IL, #4,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 14 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask is 124% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $235k implies a 224% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1909 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $226,613 (3.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1909 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.87%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $233,820
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16929 Wood St	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,699 (-2%)	7mo	$236,000	$139	72
1722 168th St	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,604 (-7%)	1mo	$210,000	$131	71
16777 Trapet Ave	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,644 (-5%)	9mo	$240,000	$146	69
16742 Crane Ave	0.44mi	4/1.0	1,683 (-3%)	6mo	$201,000	$119	68
16533 Dixie Hwy	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,800 (+4%)	13mo	$214,000	$119	68
16802 Anthony Ave	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,682 (-3%)	9mo	$226,600	$135	62
16460 Wood St	0.35mi	4/2.5	1,600 (-8%)	8mo	$227,500	$142	60
16427 Wolcott Ave	0.39mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,600 (-8%)	7mo	$174,900	$109	56
16454 Paulina St	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,500 (-13%)	2mo	$249,900	$167	54
17092 Lincoln St	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,958 (+13%)	3mo	$246,000	$126	49
17065 Crane Ave	0.57mi	4/1.0	1,500 (-13%)	0mo	$203,000	$135	49
16145 Honore Ave	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,512 (-13%)	0mo	$204,900	$136	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-40,913
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-38,747
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60429

• Home prices YoY: -14.0%
• Active inventory: 80
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,316 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$547 /mo · $6,562/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $-47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,376

Max offer price $226,613

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $86	-5% $19	+0% $-47	+5% $-114	+10% $-181
Rent	-10% $-230	-5% $-139	+0% $-47	+5% $44	+10% $135
Rate	-1.0pp $71	-0.5pp $12	base $-47	+0.5pp $-108	+1.0pp $-170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16751 Crane Ave Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	2d	1	0.43mi
2107 171st St Unit 2107 Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.5	1158	$2,300	$1.99	2d	1	0.51mi
2173 171st St Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.5	1159	$2,350	$2.03	2d	1	0.56mi
16901 Orchard Ridge Ave Hazel Crest, IL	4.0	2.0	1406	$2,700	$1.92	2d	1	0.58mi
17561 Hillside Ave Homewood, IL	3.0	1.0	1174	$2,300	$1.96	2d	1	1.12mi
17561 Hillside Ave Homewood, IL	3.0	1.0	1174	$2,500	$2.13	17d	1	1.12mi
2223 Hawthorne Rd Homewood, IL	3.0	2.0	1552	$2,300	$1.48	25d	1	1.22mi
2722 Larkspur Ln Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.5	1441	$2,650	$1.84	13d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   remarks 173-char remark
9. 2026-06-08
   listed $235,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,562 · $547/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,562 · $547/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,792
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$6,562
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,223
• − Management: −$2,223
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$4,392
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,054
• After-tax cash flow: $484/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thornton Twp Hsd 205
• NCES district ID: 1738970
• Math proficiency: 7% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 8% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,392
• Composite: 6.92/100
• National rank: #9976
• State rank: #594 of 620 in IL

Livability — Hazel Crest

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #229
• US rank: #4242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hazel Crest, IL
• City population: 14,602
• Population (ZIP): 14,602

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 83% White 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.04%
• Current HPI: 282.3552
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+25.0% since first listed

41 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-27 Sold (MLS) $72,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-12 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-30 Price Changed $74,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-27 Price Changed $79,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-22 Price Changed $89,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-21 Listed $104,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-21 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-12 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-16 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-01 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-25 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-13 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-20 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-12 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-12 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-19 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-27 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-17 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-26 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-22 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2018-03-15 Sold (MLS) $45,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-05 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-13 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-27 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-08 Listed $59,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $664,500 Public Records
• 2013-03-04 Sold (MLS) $155,200 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-02-22 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-09-22 Sold (MLS) $61,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-08-25 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-08-11 Listed $68,400 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-08-11 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-08-11 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-12-28 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-12-28 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-12-17 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-09-18 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-01-29 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-07-05 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2023): $6,562 · +25.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.