4806 Cox Rd

Wilsons, VA 23894

$205,000F

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 484 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Active · 65 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $934/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax + insurance: −$342
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$196
• Net cashflow: $-679/mo
• Annual: $-8,150/yr
• Cap rate: 2.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.20%
• DSCR: 0.37
• 1% rule: 0.46%
• Cash to close: $57,400

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-679 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $107k (47.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $93k (54.5% below list).
• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $93k (54.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dinwiddie County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #81 of 131 in VA (top 62%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Midway Elementary (math 77% / reading 67%, grade A-, #273 of 1,108 statewide, top 27%, 346 students, 89% FRL); Dinwiddie County Middle (math 34% / reading 62%, grade C-, #247 of 342 statewide, top 74%, 958 students, 84% FRL); Dinwiddie County High (math 51% / reading 70%, grade C+, #244 of 319 statewide, top 77%, 1,290 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 46% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 82 units permitted in Dinwiddie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dinwiddie County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $205k implies a 105% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 54% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.