4806 Cox Rd · Wilsons, VA 23894

$205,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 484 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1965 1.56 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Cash flow +2.8/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Incredible investment opportunity in Dinwiddie County! This unique property features two single-family homes situated on 1.56 acres, plus an additional buildable side lot. One home offers 3 bedrooms and 1 bath and the other 2 bedrooms 1 bath. Measuring approximately 1,100 sq. ft. and the other 700 sq. ft. Both properties are currently tenant-occupied with leases requiring 60-day notice. The homes have separate septic systems and share a well. Don’t miss out, schedule your appointment today!

Key facts

• Share a well
• Buildable side lot
• 1.56 acre lot

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• TWO SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES
• BUILDABLE SIDE LOT
• SEPARATE SEPTIC SYSTEMS
• SHARE A WELL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-679 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $107k (47.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $93k (54.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $93k (54.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dinwiddie County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #81 of 131 in VA (top 62%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Midway Elementary (math 77% / reading 67%, grade A-, #273 of 1,108 statewide, top 27%, 346 students, 89% FRL); Dinwiddie County Middle (math 34% / reading 62%, grade C-, #247 of 342 statewide, top 74%, 958 students, 84% FRL); Dinwiddie County High (math 51% / reading 70%, grade C+, #244 of 319 statewide, top 77%, 1,290 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 46% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 82 units permitted in Dinwiddie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Dinwiddie County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $205k implies a 105% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,358 (54.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 54% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.46% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.20%
• DSCR: 0.37
• GRM: 18.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-17,875
• Equity at exit: $92,893

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-3,791
• Equity at exit: $143,718

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23894

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 18.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $934 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$256 /mo · $3,075/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$196
• Net cashflow: $-679

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,793

Max offer price $106,721

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-538	-5% $-608	+0% $-679	+5% $-750	+10% $-821
Rent	-10% $-753	-5% $-716	+0% $-679	+5% $-642	+10% $-605
Rate	-1.0pp $-576	-0.5pp $-627	base $-679	+0.5pp $-732	+1.0pp $-786

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $205,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   price $205,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $210,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $210,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 44 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    price $215,000 501-char remark

    Show marketing remark (501 chars)

    Incredible investment opportunity in Dinwiddie County! This unique property features two single-family homes situated on 1.56 acres, plus an additional buildable side lot. One home offers 3 bedrooms and 1 bath and the other 2 bedrooms 1 bath. Measuring approximately 1,100 sq. ft. and the other 700 sq. ft. Both properties are currently tenant-occupied with leases requiring 60-day notice. The homes have separate septic systems and share a well. Don’t miss out, schedule your appointment today!

18. 2026-04-24
    price $229,950 501-char remark

    Show marketing remark (501 chars)

    Incredible investment opportunity in Dinwiddie County! This unique property features two single-family homes situated on 1.56 acres, plus an additional buildable side lot. One home offers 3 bedrooms and 1 bath and the other 2 bedrooms 1 bath. Measuring approximately 1,100 sq. ft. and the other 700 sq. ft. Both properties are currently tenant-occupied with leases requiring 60-day notice. The homes have separate septic systems and share a well. Don’t miss out, schedule your appointment today!

19. 2026-04-10
    listed $250,000 Active 501-char remark

    Show marketing remark (501 chars)

    Incredible investment opportunity in Dinwiddie County! This unique property features two single-family homes situated on 1.56 acres, plus an additional buildable side lot. One home offers 3 bedrooms and 1 bath and the other 2 bedrooms 1 bath. Measuring approximately 1,100 sq. ft. and the other 700 sq. ft. Both properties are currently tenant-occupied with leases requiring 60-day notice. The homes have separate septic systems and share a well. Don’t miss out, schedule your appointment today!

20. 2022-08-12
    soldstatus $100,000
21. 2004-05-07
    soldstatus $65,000
22. 2004-05-05
    soldstatus $65,000 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Investors Dream! Two homes on almost two acres. One home has 1100 Sq. Ft. , with 2 bdrms and 1 bath. Second home has approx. 600 Sq. Ft. with one bedroom and one bath. Nice location and a lovely setting.

23. 2003-11-07
    listed $69,900 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Investors Dream! Two homes on almost two acres. One home has 1100 Sq. Ft. , with 2 bdrms and 1 bath. Second home has approx. 600 Sq. Ft. with one bedroom and one bath. Nice location and a lovely setting.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,203
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$3,075
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$896
• − Management: −$896
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$12,136
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,913
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,237/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dinwiddie County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101170
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $51,857
• Composite: 46.62/100
• National rank: #2413
• State rank: #81 of 131 in VA

Livability — Wilsons

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 403

Population outlook (Dinwiddie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,876 people
• By 2030: 27,480 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 26,285 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 24,617 · -11.7%
• By 2075: 21,647 · -22.3%
• By 2100: 18,485 · -33.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Black 37%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dinwiddie

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.1% · R 61.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.0pp toward R · 2008: -2.2pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+12.4 2012: R+2.6 2008: R+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.06%
• Current HPI: 106.9384
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+207.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $215,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $229,950 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $250,000 CVRMLS
• 2022-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2004-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2004-05-05 Sold (MLS) $65,000 CVRMLS
• 2003-11-07 Listed $69,900 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $385 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.