17 Gary Ave

Union Beach, NJ 07734

$70,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Active · 179 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,574/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$950
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $600/mo
• Annual: $7,198/yr
• Cap rate: 16.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.73%
• DSCR: 2.63
• 1% rule: 3.68%
• Cash to close: $19,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $600 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 179 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#56 in NJ, #1,443 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Hazlet Township Public School District (suburban): math 20% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #268 of 472 in NJ (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 37% of rent.
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 2.6% in Union Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 179 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.