17 Gary Ave · Union Beach, NJ 07734

$70,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily · 179 Days on market

Built 1968 9,147 sqft lot $950/mo HOA · 37% of rent ↓ 39% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

DON'T RENT! Instead, consider this fully renovated 800 sqft single-wide manufactured mobile home in the well-maintained, professionally managed & quiet Holly Hill Community of Hazlet. Children attend Hazlet schools, Adults can walk to bus stops or take quick drive to conveniences, shopping, restaurants, major highways, ferry to NYC and go to the nearby beach! This 2 bedroom move-right-in condition home is ready for a new owner who will enjoy the open floor plan, new kitchen, new flooring, new appliances, central air & modern finishes. Affordable monthly land lease of $950 includes: property taxes, water, sewer, upkeep of common areas, trash & snow removal. Community is pe

Key facts

• Fully renovated
• Open floor plan
• New kitchen

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NEW KITCHEN
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW APPLIANCES
• CENTRAL AIR

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA present with monthly fee; Monthly association fee of $950 (includes trash, common area, sewer, snow removal, water); Association managed by Lakeshore Management

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: 800 living area (reported)
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric stove; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric cooking
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (all on the first level)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Washer and dryer included; Electric cooking; Microwave; Stove; Refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $600 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 2.6% in Union Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#56 in NJ, #1,443 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Hazlet Township Public School District (suburban): math 20% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #268 of 472 in NJ (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 179 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 37% of rent.

Recommended offer $61,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 179 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.73%
• DSCR: 2.63
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $305,600
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37 Central Ave	0.31mi	2/1.0	738 (-8%)	2mo	$442,000	$599	71
40 Frederick Pl	0.63mi	2/1.0	820 (+2%)	0mo	$330,000	$402	66
71 13th St	0.27mi	2/1.0	888 (+11%)	10mo	$275,000	$310	60
23 Wood St	0.69mi	2/1.0	863 (+8%)	0mo	$330,000	$382	54
—	0.53mi	2/1.0	773 (-3%)	19mo	$162,000	$210	54
3 Avenue D	0.72mi	2/1.0	864 (+8%)	7mo	$135,000	$156	48
145 7th St	0.54mi	2/1.0	861 (+8%)	21mo	$360,000	$418	45
—	0.53mi	3/1.0 (+1)	912 (+14%)	16mo	$128,100	$140	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $27,484
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.86×
• Total profit: $75,657
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07734

• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,574 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$950
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $600

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,815

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $648	-5% $624	+0% $600	+5% $576	+10% $551
Rent	-10% $396	-5% $498	+0% $600	+5% $702	+10% $803
Rate	-1.0pp $635	-0.5pp $618	base $600	+0.5pp $582	+1.0pp $563

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
227 Seeley Ave Keansburg, NJ	1.0	1.0	1098	$1,950	$1.78	5d	1	0.93mi
72 Willis Ave Unit 2 Keansburg, NJ	3.0	1.0	950	$2,800	$2.95	18d	1	1.03mi
159 Port Monmouth Rd Unit 2 Keansburg, NJ	3.0	1.0	900	$2,800	$3.11	11d	1	1.20mi
717 Harmony Rd North Middletown, NJ	2.0	1.0	876	$3,300	$3.77	0d	1	1.26mi
19 Carr Ave Keansburg, NJ	1.0	1.0	643	$2,050	$3.19	8d	8	1.34mi
123 Northampton Dr Holmdel, NJ	1.0	1.0	975	$2,300	$2.36	17d	1	1.42mi
123 Northampton Dr Holmdel, NJ	1.0	1.0	816	$2,550	$3.12	45d	1	1.42mi
910 New Jersey 36 Hazlet, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	970	$3,322	$3.42	0d	8	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $950 · $11,400/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashsnow removal

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $70,000 Active 179 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 176 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 175 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 174 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 173 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 171 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 170 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 167 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 166 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 165 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $70,000 Active 162 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 161 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 160 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 159 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 158 DOM
16. 2026-04-14
    status Active
17. 2026-04-09
    status Pending
18. 2026-02-28
    price $70,000
19. 2025-12-19
    listed $89,000 Active
20. 2025-10-14
    listed $89,000 Active
21. 2025-08-04
    price $99,000
22. 2025-07-15
    listed $115,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,890
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,471
• − Management: −$2,471
• − HOA: −$11,400
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $7,190
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,726
• After-tax cash flow: $5,473/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazlet Township Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3413680
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $86,397
• Composite: 32.89/100
• National rank: #5606
• State rank: #268 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Union Beach

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #56
• US rank: #1443

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monmouth County · 505,557 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 12,925
• Household income: $82,029
• Rent vs Own: 42.3% rent · 57.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 485.0

Population outlook (Monmouth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 620,308 people
• By 2030: 612,309 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 587,297 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 551,342 · -11.1%
• By 2075: 472,934 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 381,534 · -38.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 8% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monmouth

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.4% · R 54.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -3.7pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: R+2.8 2016: R+9.5 2012: R+5.5 2008: R+3.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -218.47%
• Current HPI: 379.3764
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-39.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2026-04-09 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $70,000 MOMLS
• 2025-12-19 Listed $89,000 MOMLS
• 2025-10-14 Listed $89,000 MOMLS
• 2025-08-04 Price Changed $99,000 MOMLS
• 2025-07-15 Listed $115,000 MOMLS